This way to the end zone
While action has largely been split between the Chiefs and 49ers in teamside betting for Sunday’s Super Bowl LIV, most money on the total has come in strong for the Over.
That was overwhelmingly true at early lines of 52, 53, and 54. Sportsbooks didn’t calm the storm until going to 54¹/2. Those testing 55 did finally see Under money hit the board. The “sharp window” focusing only on professional bettors looks to frame “Over 54 or less,” and “Under 55 or more.”
Monitor the markets until kickoff to see if public sentiment drives the number higher. Square money dwarfs sharp money in Super Bowls, and recreational bettors love rooting for points! It’s possible the total could reset and even bust through 55.
It’s easy to see why pros and amateurs alike are expecting a lot of points. Games on championship Sunday landed on 59 (Titans/Chiefs) and 57 (Packers/49ers). Kansas City played to 82 in its first playoff game vs. Houston. San Francisco did stay well Under vs. Minnesota, but scored 27 on its own. Kansas City is better offensively, softer defensively than the Vikings.
Let’s take a quick peek at scoreboard sums when both San Francisco and Kansas City faced playoff-caliber opponents (regular season and postseason). I’ll leave out games Patrick Mahomes missed vs. Green Bay and Minnesota because they were a much different team with Matt Moore at quarterback. Sums are listed in order from low to high to make possibilities easier to visualize.
• Kansas City: 39, 55, 59, 61, 67, 82 Average 60.5, median 59-61 The only game less than 55 was at New England. This group usually plays shootouts vs. quality. Gamblers focused on Kansas City would naturally couple Over bets with Chiefs bets.
• San Francisco: 37, 37, 45, 47, 48, 57, 94 Average 52.14, median 47 Note that the 48 was in regulation vs. Seattle. I didn’t count overtime scoring to keep every sample at 60 minutes. The 94 was in a fireworks show at New Orleans. But, you can see that San Francisco’s superior defense and run-based attack has the ability to suppress scoring.
For the 13 samples combined, the average is 56, the median 55. How about that?
This type of shortcut study is far from rigorous. But it gives you a quick sense of why the Super Bowl total is in the mid-50s, and why early money pounded lower numbers so aggressively.
It’s worth remembering that this game could go overtime. It’s projected to be a toss-up.
A regulation tie at 27-all would definitely go Over current lines because somebody has to score to win. Even a regulation tie at 24-all could get interesting.
Is there a smart bet on the total? Those thinking Over 55¹/2 in PatriotsRams last February was a smart bet endured a miserable 13-3 finish. There are no sure things in sports betting. There is certainly serious shootout potential Sunday.