STEALING HEADLINES
Mahomes’ star will shine in Supe
THE TWO things I like most about my job at The New York Post are handicapping NFL games and writing headlines. The two pursuits, though, are quite different.
Handicapping is largely a cognitive exercise. You compile as many relevant facts as you can about the teams and the marketplace, weigh them for importance, and let your betting principles lead you to your selection. Headline writing is a talent. Either you can describe a threehour game in three or four dynamic words, or you can’t.
Another distinction is that all of the picks count. They’re published every week, and when things are going badly, you can’t hide from your record. If you bet, you can’t help but notice your wallet feeling lighter. Dumb headline suggestions are simply snickered at and discarded.
Sometimes, you can be very good at one of these challenges and very bad at the other — at the same time. Six years ago in these pages, I picked the Broncos over the Seahawks, 27-23, in Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium. As WFAN’s Joe Benigno might say, “What a disastuh!” right from the start. The first offensive snap of the game went for a Seattle safety. After Peyton Manning threw a pick-six to Malcolm Smith late in the second quarter, it was 22-0. My selection was going straight to “L” but my headline suggestion — MANN SLAUGHTER — was headed for the next morning’s back page.
What does this have to do with the 49ers and Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV? We’ll see on Sunday if it’s anything or nothing. What made me think of that game, which ended 43-8, was a comment by my colleague Mark Hale. He said San Francisco-Kansas City reminds him of Seattle-Denver, and that immediately worried me because my main reason for picking these Chiefs is the same as it was for taking those Broncos: the quarterback.
My reasoning then was Manning, who’d thrown for 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns that season, would be able to get the better of a “Legion of Doom” defense that had 28 interceptions, because he could audible his way into favorable situations. Only “Omaha! Omaha!” turned quickly to “Oh-my-God!” So let’s try to do this another way and dissect 49ersChiefs in a more clinical fashion. The 49ers are 15-3 including postseason, 12-6 against the spread. The line is a meager one point but that still makes them underdogs, and they were 5-0 ATS in that role this season. Jimmy
Garoppolo is 17-10-1 ATS in his career as a starting quarterback, including 9-2 ATS as an underdog.
The Chiefs are 14-4 straight up and 13-5 ATS. The have covered 11 of 15 games in which they have been favored. Mahomes is 22-11-2 ATS in his career starts and 1711-1 ATS as a favorite.
In terms of points per game in the regular season and postseason, the 49ers’ average score is 30.1-18.9, a little better than the Chiefs’ 29.7-20.1. But Kansas City is the hotter team, having won eight games in a row, including a playoff game in which it trailed 24-0 at one point.
The 49ers didn’t have to throw the ball to beat Green Bay, but that doesn’t mean they can’t. Garoppolo is more than a game manager, and he has an array of dangerous targets in George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne. The Chiefs defense isn’t great statistically, but during this surge it has contributed a driveending sack or turnover at just the right time quite often.
Honestly, I can’t make a selection based on any of that. It’s all so razor close, like the spread.
So that leads me back to Mahomes, who has the talent to write back-page headlines all night long at Hard Rock Stadium, even against the fast and physical 49ers.
Mahomes’ creativity, vision and legs can turn nothing into something, sometimes something big, with the help of Tyreek Hill and his other big-play receivers. Once Mahomes figures out a defense, he can score and score some more. Ask the Texans, who watched him put the ball in the end zone seven drives in a row.
In the NFL it’s never anyone’s turn, but I believe it’s Mahomes’ time to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY: 2-2 (1-1 vs. spread, 1-1 Over/Unders).