THE BIG GAME HAS CHANGED
Recent trends at odds with all-time Super Bowl figures
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AS VEGAS — Super Bowl Sunday is the sports world’s biggest day, and bettors are prepping for what figures to be an intriguing matchup between the Chiefs and the 49ers in Miami. Not only do these very good teams have Pro Bowl-caliber players all over the field, but the matchup offers fresh faces. San Francisco is in it for the first time in seven years, and for Kansas City it’s been 50 years.
Kansas City was a one-point favorite at press time, though several books had the number at 1¹/2. At either number, it figures to be a hotly contested game. Underdogs have won and covered six of the past eight Super Bowls and are 9-3 ATS in the past 12.
The total is sitting at 54¹/2, a fairly high number for a Super Bowl. Last year’s PatriotsRams game showed a total of 57 midweek but plummeted to 55¹/2 at kickoff as sharp money pounded the Under. That game wound up with just 16 points scored, so watch for any noticeable total moves the rest of this week. The 49ers and Chiefs have combined for 150 points in their four playoff games, the major reason for the lofty number.
Over the total seems to be the most popular wager so far, as the game opened at 51 but was driven up to 54¹/2. I expect it to drop simply because it shot up so quickly. Kansas City would seem to be the preferred side at this point after the game opened as pick ’em. If stereotypes hold, this is a prototypical matchup of elite offense versus elite defense, the sort we really haven’t seen since the 2014 game between Denver and Seattle.
Part of your preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I am here to do, as we look back at 53 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats and trends you’ll need to make educated selections. As you’ll see, there are some recent trends that go against the long-time numbers.
ATS TRENDS
• Favorites in the Super Bowl are 33-19 SU and own an ATS mark of 24-25-3 (49 percent), with the 1982 49ers-Bengals game having been a pick ’em. However, over the past 18 years, underdogs own a 13-5 ATS (72.2 percent) edge, including 9-3 ATS in the past 12. The only five favorites to win and cover in that span were New England in ’17 and ’19, Green Bay in ’11, Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.
• The straight-up winner is 44-6-3 ATS (88 percent) in the 53 Super Bowls, and the underdog has never covered a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than six points.
• The NFC holds a 27-26 SU and 27-23-3 (54 percent) ATS edge all time and is 10-7 ATS since ’03. However, AFC teams have turned the tide recently with a 4-2 SU and ATS surge.
• The higher playoff seed is just 2-13-2 ATS (13.3 percent) in the past 23 Super Bowls. Equal seeds have matched up six times. This year we have the 49ers as a No. 1 against the Chiefs as a No. 2. Strangely, this is just the second No. 1-vs.-No. 2 matchup in the past 15 seasons.
• The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl is 29-17 SU all time but has lost nine of the past 10, including the Rams (13-3) vs. the
Patriots (11-5) a year ago. For 2020, the 49ers were 13-3, the Chiefs 12-4. Advantage, Chiefs?
• San Francisco is 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its previous Super Bowls, having last lost 34-31 to the Ravens in ’13 as a 4¹/2-point favorite. Kansas City is 1-1 SU and ATS previously but hasn’t played in a Super Bowl in 50 years.
• The average winning score is 30.1, with the average losing score 16.1, an average winning margin of 14. However, 15 of the past 16 games have been decided by 14 or fewer points, a sign of a much more competitive era in the NFL.
• Since the epic 35-31 duel between Pittsburgh and Dallas in Super Bowl XIII in 1979, 24 teams have hit the 30-point mark. Their records: 22-2 SU and 21-3 ATS. Only New England, a 32-29 winner over Carolina in ’04, San Francisco in ’13 and New England in ’18 failed to cover their point spreads.
• Of the 16 Super Bowls to be decided by less than a touchdown, seven have been in the past 12 years.
OVER/UNDER TRENDS
• In the 35 Super Bowls that have had totals, the Over is 2113-1 (61.7 percent). Last year’s game was just the second in the past seven years to go Under, and it did so in record fashion, falling short of the posted number by 39 points.
• The Super Bowl has averaged 46.2 ppg, but it’s 50.4 ppg in the era in which totals have been posted. The average posted total has been 47.8, nearly a touchdown lower than this year’s number.