Chief/Over teaser will beat kinder lines
Six-point teaser: Chiefs +5/ Over 48.5 (-120 at William
Hill): With my well-earned reputation as a “dog-or-pass” bettor, most people presume I’m taking the underdog 49ers in the Super Bowl. However, I can’t pull the trigger, as I actually rate the Chiefs as the better overall team and more likely to pull out the win with Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying offense, plus a defense that has improved as the season has progressed.
The same thing happened last year when all my followers figured I would be on the Rams vs. the Patriots, but I was unwilling to fade Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, and was quite proud of my decision to pass on the Rams when the Patriots won 13-3 in the lowest-scoring Super Bowl ever (though admittedly, my Best Bet was Over 56, so we missed that by just 40 points).
So, take it with a grain of salty Super Bowl snacks when I say I like the Over again, though I liked it more when it opened around 51 to 51 ¹/2. Though the 49ers certainly have a very good defense, the modern game still favors offense, and the Chiefs just have too many weapons to be contained the whole game.
In addition, though the Chiefs’ defense has improved, the 49ers should still have success with Raheem Mostert running wild and setting up QB Jimmy Garoppolo off play-action.
Therefore, though I lean to the Chiefs and the Over, I don’t have enough confidence to call either a Best Bet, so I think the best way to play this is a 6-point teaser with the Chiefs +5 and Over 48 ¹ /2.
I usually don’t recommend teasing through zero, but it makes sense in what should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring battle. Though I expect the Chiefs to be victorious, this protects us in case the 49ers pull out a threeor four-point win in a close game or if the Chiefs need to get in the back door. The Over 48¹/2 provides a little wiggle room as it gives us back those earlier lower numbers we missed.
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY: 1-1. Titans (L). Packers49ers Over (W). SEASON: 20-19-1.