Crystal Ball: Overtime needed for this Super Bowl prediction

MIAMI — Guess it’s good that I was forced to make my annual Super Bowl pick under deadline duress, because now I can now stop tossing and turning in my quest to figure this one out and get it right.

Remember Billy Martin in those “Tastes Great, Less Filling” Miller Lite commercials? “I feel strongly both ways.” That’s me every damn day this week.

I’m certain I set Super Bowl Week records for vacillation and exasperation.

One minute after listening to Chiefs players, I was picking them; the next minute after listening to 49ers players, I was picking them.

I kept waiting for an epiphany — it’ll be here any minute now. I tried googling Miami-based psychics … and decided a better use of my time and money was Joe’s Stone Crab.

49ers linebacker Kwon Alexander, a delightful lad, had me wobbly on Wednesday night when he vowed his vaunted pass rushers would hunt down Patrick Mahomes. “I promise you they will,” he told me. That got my attention. Then on Thursday, 49ers tackle Mike McGlinchey told me this about Jimmy Garoppolo: “He’s a stud, and he’s an absolute baller back there. He’s the quarterback of a very, very complete football team, and he doesn’t have to be a six-touchdown, 500-yard guy every single week, but he’s very, very capable of doing it when he needs to, and that’s what we love to hang our hat on is, ‘ All right, keep doubting him because he’s going to keep proving you wrong.’ ”

Then I reminded myself that there hasn’t been a team during Super Week that wasn’t confident, that didn’t believe in its quarterback, that even off the record has had a player whisper in my ear: “I don’t think we have a chance against these guys.”

But as impressionable as I can be from time to time, I do remember laughing off Broadway Joe Namath’s guarantee in Super Bowl III.

Hey, there’s only one Broadway Joe.

So I went with my gut (where once there might have been a six pack … or maybe not).

I went with Patrick Mahomes.

I also went with my heart. I went with Andy Reid. It came down to Mahomes versus Defense Wins Championships for me, and I simply could not bet against Magic Mahomes.

Defense Wins Championships when you have the ’85 Bears against the Tony Eason Patriots, or the 2000 Ravens against the Kerry Collins Giants, or The Greatest Show on Turf against Bill Belichick, or Jared Goff versus Bill Belichick. But Elite Quarterbacks Win Championships, t o o. Jo e Montana and Terry Bradshaw won four Super B owl s — ye s , their defenses were quite good — Troy Aikman won t h re e, El i Manning won two at the end of the game, Ben Roethlisberger won one at the end, Steve Young threw six touchdown passes against the Chargers, Tom Brady brought the Patriots back from a 28-3 deficit.

Hot Quarterbacks Win Championships, too — Phil Simms was 22-of-25 in Super Bowl XXI in Pasadena, Calif., Doug Williams threw for 340 yards and four TDs in Super Bowl XXII, Nick Foles threw three TD passes and caught one as Saint Nick in Super Bowl LII to deliver Philadelphia its first Lombardi Trophy.

It impacted me how lightning fast Mahomes and his track team receivers were able to overcome any deficit in the blink of an eye, especially in this postseason. No lead was safe against these guys. Tyreek Hill? Not even Mahomes can overthrow him. Travis Kelce? So clutch, and his chance to outshine George Kittle.

Got a coincidence for you: Montana threw 11 TDs without an interception in his four Super Bowls. Mahomes has thrown 11 TDs without an INT in his four playoff games. Just sayin’.

My high school f r i end who requested anonymity because he doesn’t want anyone to know that he knows me — let’s call him Gettleman — reminded me Raheem Mostert gashed the Packers for 220 yards on the ground.

No chance that happens again with a healthy Chris Jones dominating in the trenches for the Chiefs.

Kyle Shanahan’s outside zone run game will have success against the Chiefs, but what happens if the 49ers can’t control clock and keep Mahomes off the field enough?

And what if Mahomes, who will be wary but unafraid of throwing at Richard Sherman, forces Garoppolo to play catchup against Jones and Frank Clark and Honey Badger Mathieu? Garoppolo will not get the job done throwing eight passes in this one.

And what if, even though Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead and Dee Ford are certain to get to Mahomes at times, the Chiefs offensive and defensive lines are sick and tired of hearing about those guys?

And what if Mahomes keeps getting the ball out of his hand so quickly? He was sacked 17 times in 14 regular-season games, and just twice in this postseason. Mahomes’ offensive line was the best in the league at holding blocks in the first three seconds of pass plays this season, per Next Gen Stats.

49ers supporters will point to Garoppolo throwing for 349 yards, four TDs and one INT in their 48-46 Week 14 victory over the Saints.

I will point to Drew Brees also throwing for 349 yards with five TDs and zero INTs against the 49ers’ topranked pass defense.

The Chiefs will struggle running the ball, but Mahomes’ peerless instincts can stress the 49ers defense because he throws well on the run and is dangerous with his legs.

And I could not discount The Team of Destiny factor. Reid needs a Super Bowl championship for the Hall of Fame. Most precincts outside of San Francisco will be rooting for him. Hell, even Philadelphia, which couldn’t wait to see him go at the end there, has made him their sentimental favorite. The Chiefs players want to win this one for him. Reid is 61 years old and who knows if this will be his last shot at redemption for his disastrous clock management at the end of Super Bowl XXXIX?

He is the perfect coach for Magic Mahomes. He is an innovator who lets Mahomes be Mahomes. And Magic Mahomes is the perfect quarterback for him. The perfect storm.

This has the makings of an epic Super Bowl. Mahomes will need to be poised and more patient than usual. He will be. Second Super Bowl overtime. Mahomes-to-Hardman, 54-yard TD pass ends it. This is his Mahoment. Chiefs, 29-23 in OT.