Fighting crime in a pandemic

NYPD sees slowdown

The coronavirus hasn’t cured crime, but it might be slowing it down, NYPD data show.

As the outbreak worsened in the first week of March, crime in the seven index categories was up 26 percent from the same week in 2019; but that rate was not much different than the year’s 20 percent surge — which experts and the NYPD have blamed on the state’s bail-reform law.

Murder was up 50 percent (from four to six); car thefts shot up 117 percent (58 to 126); rapes decreased 16 percent (31 to 26); robberies rose 43 percent (165 to 236); burglaries jumped 48 percent (149 to 220); and grand larcenies spiked 17 percent (700 to 821).

In the second week of March, from the 8th to the 15th, as the virus spread and the city saw its first deaths, the crime rate spiked only 9 percent compared with the same week in 2019, according to NYPD CompStat data.

Murder doubled (from four to eight); car thefts surged by 64 percent (75 to 123); rapes increased 18 percent (28 to 33); robberies up 8 percent (212 to 229); burglaries soared 36 percent (157 to 213); grand larcenies bumped up 4 percent (744 to 775); and felony assaults decreased by 4 percent (403 to 389).

Experts say that the uptick is a lingering symptom of bail reform, and that the virus is slowing down the crime outbreak that resulted after the state bail-system overhaul, which kicked in Jan. 1.

The new law prohibits pretrial detention in most misdemeanors and some nonviolent felonies and takes away judicial discretion.

“I think these serious crime numbers are starting to decline considerably with fewer people on the streets, fewer commuters going to work, more people working remotely, school closures, nearly empty transit systems,” said Christopher Herrmann, a former NYPD crime analyst and professor at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice.

Police Commissioner Dermot Shea said on Friday, “We’ve seen a downturn . . . as you see crowds disappearing on streets and other areas, that has translated to a decrease in crime.”

An NYPD spokesman added, “Since the state of emergency was declared on March 12, while [overall] arrests are down, arrests for the seven major crimes are up. Notably, gun arrests are up approximately 40 percent — a testament to the tremendous work of the men and women of the NYPD.”

The virus won’t cure all criminal ills, experts warned.

“It took several years, but bad public policy and progressive leniency from the mayor and City Council are finally taking its toll. I don’t think even the virus is going to save them,” snarked Joseph Giacalone, a retired NYPD sergeant and adjunct professor at John Jay.

Giacalone said that if New Yorkers are seriously hunkering down, “this could reduce robberies, shooting incidents, grand larcenies and assaults.

“No opportunities, no crimes. Many sexual assaults stem from a night of drinking at bars and clubs. With them closed, it could reduce the chances of them happening.”