NFL MYSTERY THEATHER
No preseason games makes betting futures harder than ever
LAS VEGAS — In the near future, football betting fever will spread through sportsbooks on Sundays. The atmosphere will be electric, and life will feel more normal again. Well, aside from seeing Tom Brady in a Tampa Bay Buccaneers uniform, most things will feel normal.
But this past Sunday was strange. With the NFL preseason canceled, the Saints-Steelers game that was scheduled obviously did not happen and only small numbers of basketball fans gathered to watch Luka Doncic hit a buzzer-beating 3-pointer for the Dallas Mavericks.
August is always a time to evaluate NFL teams. How does Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger look in his return from elbow surgery? If you believe what you read out of training camp, things are looking up in Pittsburgh.
There’s nothing to see, though, and the absence of football on TV has meant a lack of NFL futures wagering at the windows and on phone apps.
“The fact that there’s no NFL preseason — and the NBA and NHL playoffs are front and center — has impacted football betting,” said Vinny Magliulo, a longtime Las Vegas bookmaker.
“But I think you will see an uptick soon. Once we get to the first weekend, they will be there betting with both fists, and I think we will see a big spike on futures.”
It was mid-March when Brady signed with Tampa Bay. About two weeks prior, Magliulo said, a bettor showed up at the South Point sportsbook to wager $10,000 on the Buccaneers to win the Super Bowl at 60/1. Those odds have dropped to 10/1. The last five months have seen no other major moves on the futures board.
“It was really slow, and people were really skeptical about the football season being played,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “As we inch closer to the season, futures action is starting to pick up.”
Kornegay said the Chiefs (9/2) and Seahawks (12/1) are two of the three most popular teams in Super Bowl futures, with Kansas City drawing the most money.
At the Westgate and South Point, the Las Vegas Raiders (40/1) have the highest number of tickets — mostly small wagers from the public. The Raiders’ win total of 7 ½ (Under -130) does not indicate a Super Bowl run is coming.
While fans typically bet with their hearts, the professionals set feelings aside and play value in numbers. Pros more often bet regular-season win totals than Super Bowl futures, and some patterns are surfacing in win-total wagering.
When the season kicks off, expect the sharps and squares to battle over the Buccaneers. Most pro bettors will see a team that is overhyped and overvalued because of Brady. Tampa Bay’s win total has been bet from 9 to 9 ½ (Over -120).
“It’s a pretty steady stream of Bucs money from the public,” Magliulo said. “I don’t think that’s a real shock.”
Brady’s former team is not getting a similar level of wagering respect. At the Westgate, the Patriots’ win total is 9 (Under -140), and New England is the second choice (+160) to win the AFC East behind the favored Buffalo Bills (-125).
The Patriots have had eight players opt out of the 2020 season due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. New England did seem to get a boost in late June by signing veteran quarterback Cam Newton to compete with Jarrett Stidham, but the Newton addition did not impress oddsmakers.
“There’s more skepticism on Cam than optimism in the football betting world,” Kornegay said. “That did not move the needle at all.”
Patrick Mahomes does move the needle. Magliulo said the South Point has taken significant money over the win total for the Chiefs, who are up to 12 after opening 11 ½. It’s never a surprise when the defending Super Bowl champs attracts public action.
While the Cowboys have not won a Super Bowl since the 1995 season, pro and public bettors are optimistic about the team’s change to new coach Mike McCarthy. Dallas’ win total has moved from 9 ½ to 10 at most books, though PointsBet in New Jersey is still offering 9 ½ with an Over price of -170.
Professional handicapper Scott Kellen said he’s playing the Cowboys over the total. Dallas finished 8-8 last year despite going 0-5 in games decided by seven points or fewer, and this year’s schedule includes five games against teams projected to win fewer than seven games — Washington, the Bengals and the Giants.
The Westgate lists the Cowboys as -140 favorites in the NFC East, followed by the Eagles (+150), Giants (14/1) and Washington (25/1). McCarthy’s positive track record working with quarterbacks should benefit Dak Prescott and a potentially explosive offense.