My, oh, Miami!
It has been a long year so far, but 2020 finally let up when it gave us this NBA Finals matchup.
A series between two flamboyant cities in Miami and Los Angeles, with storied franchises in the Lakers and Heat. It is a series loaded with so many narratives and storylines that it might as well be the latest ”Days of Our Lives” episode.
Can LeBron James snatch a title from under the nose of Pat Riley, and his vaunted “Heat Culture”? Does Riley finally get revenge against James for betraying him and destroying what could have been a decade-long dynasty in Miami? Will Kyle Kuzma take a title from Tyler Herro, the rookie sensation who is currently dating his ex-girlfriend, Instagram model Katya Elise Henry?
Oh, and there’s the actual matchup on the floor as well.
Los Angeles took both games in the regular-season series between these clubs, with the last one coming in December. The Lakers are 2-0 straight up, but 1-1 against the spread in the series, failing to cover in a win in South Beach in which Jimmy Butler’s gametying shot was not true at the buzzer.
The Lakers posted a plus-9.3 net rating in the two games against the Heat, but Miami is a different team now with two new faces. In February, the Heat acquired veteran wing Andre Iguodala in a trade with Memphis, and along with him came journeyman Jae Crowder. The main prize of the deal was Iguodala, but Crowder has been an important piece to this run. He shot 43.2 percent on 3s against Milwaukee, and can give the Heat a tertiary scoring option on any given night.
There is no one matchup to point to that will swing this in one team’s direction, but there are many fascinating factors that will impact this series.
A massive reason why Miami will be playing basketball into October was the zone defense it ran against Boston. Erik Spoelstra ran zone during the regular season more than any other coach in the league, and bettors should be ready for it again. Los Angeles is shooting 35.5 percent from deep this postseason, and has been known to struggle from time-to-time with any form of a jump shot. The zone defense will be a perfect way to disjoint the Lakers’ offensive flow.
However, Los Angeles has its own weapon: Size.
The Lakers regularly roll out a frontcourt lineup of LeBron James, Anthony Davis and either Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee at center. What does Miami have to match that? Bam Adebayo is a quality center, but Spoelstra tends to play Butler and Crowder with him in the front court. That is quite the size disadvantage for the Heat, so should bettors expect to see more Meyers Leonard, who did not play a single minute in the Eastern Conference finals?
Miami lacks size, but it doesn’t lack shooting prowess, and that could be the difference in a series the market believes is going to much tighter than originally thought. The first series price posted had the Lakers at -450, but the market has since moved to -358 on the Lakers at BetMGM.
It is a move I agree with. Miami is a well-coached team that goes seven or eight deep. The Heat have had a different leading scorer for each round of the postseason, and every team that has done that in the past has gone on to win the NBA Finals. Look for that to continue.
Pick: Miami to win NBA Finals (+300).