Last stand for the Hoodie
Amazin' pusuit of tix payments during health, financial crisis
The Patriots have lost three games in a row heading into Sunday’s game vs. the Bills in Orchard Park, but two VSiN handicappers agree this is not the time to bail out on Bill Belichick as a 4-point underdog.
Youmans: All profitable trends eventually come to an end, and betting on Belichick after a loss is no longer a reliable handicapping angle. The Patriots were just pummeled, 33-6, by the 49ers in the most lopsided home loss of the Belichick era, and New England has lost three consecutive games for the first time since 2002.
The Patriots’ two decades of dominance against Buffalo is rendered irrelevant in this week’s matchup. It’s sometimes tempting to buy on bad news, though, and the betting public wants nothing to do with New England now. The same was true in Week 7, when I joined several so-called sharps in an ill-fated pursuit of the Patriots, but I’ll give this one more shot.
With two games remaining against the Jets, New England (2-4) could get back into the AFC East race with an upset of the Bills. Belichick is 14-4 ATS as an underdog since 2010. With another loss, Belichick likely will become a seller at next week’s trade deadline.
Dramatic storylines aside, there’s not as much of a fear factor in betting against the Bills, who scored on six field goals Sunday in an 18-10 victory over the Jets. Josh Allen has regressed — and never was a legitimate MVP candidate anyway — with four touchdown passes and three interceptions in the past three games, while Buffalo’s defense ranks 21st in the respected metric Defense
Adjusted Value over Average (DVOA), according to Football Outsiders.
It’s reasonable to expect a bounceback effort from Belichick’s defense and from quarterback Cam Newton, who was benched Sunday after throwing three interceptions and knows his starting job is on the line this week.
Dinsick: This is the highest-leverage game on the slate, as a win would put the Patriots back in the conversation for a playoff spot while a loss would most likely spell the end of the season. This should incentivize Belichick and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to empty the playbook in terms of unique scheming and game planning for this familiar opponent as this game sets up as the Patriots’ last stand.
Despite the woes in the passing game (30th in EPA per dropback), New England’s rushing attack is the NFL’s most successful by far, generating 0.103 expected points per play. And that matches up brilliantly against a bottomfive rush defense (Bills are allowing 0.049 EPA per rush in 2020).
Rush defense also has been the Patriots’ key weakness, however the Bills have shown no ability to take advantage with their rushing attack, managing the 26th ranked EPA at -0.123 points per rush attempt. This puts the onus on Allen to succeed through the air against the most difficult secondary he has faced this season, as he will likely have limited drive opportunities with the Patriots set up well to control the clock and game state.
The Bills are rightful favorites but will be hard pressed to win by more than a field goal based on my numbers, so the Patriots are a solid play at +4.
WHEN would be a good time for a ball club to treat its most devoted customers in a reasonably fair manner? Might it be during a health pandemic without a foreseeable end, a pandemic that has cost innumerable Americans their careers? Yeah, that might be a good time. But New York teams have a rotten habit of trying to exploit whatever there is to exploit to feed their blind lust for money and alienate their best customers.
Just last week, Michael Breslaw, a Mets season-ticket purchaser for the past 31 years and a local businessman who’s hanging in there on behalf of his employees, took a Zoom call from a Mets ticket-sales rep.
Breslaw pays $33,000 a year for five seats.
“The sales rep wanted to know if I still wanted the seats. I told him that under COVID conditions, I’m not sure that our clients or my family would want to attend.
“He then said that I’d better make up my mind because season-ticket sales are going very well and I shouldn’t miss out. He said 87 percent of season-ticket holders have renewed for the coming season.”
That struck Breslaw, and me, as preposterous. Eighty-seven percent in the throes of a financial and deadly health crisis? Five percent would strike me as high.
Breslaw tried to negotiate incremental preseason payments, through March, but was told no.
“I would still have to pay $8,000, now, $8,000 in December, $8,000 in January and the balance — $9,000 — in February and March.
“I told him I’d pay them the final $18,000 in March, closer to when we know if there will be a regular season.” The Mets could bank $15,000 of his money in the meantime. “But I was refused. I told him that’s ridiculous.”
And as of today, Breslaw, after 31 years, is an ex-Mets season-ticket holder. How, after all, could he possibly accede to such terms under current unknown and unpredictable conditions?
But that’s how sports businesses operate here. You may recall the Jets’ bogus selling of their PSLs while Roger Goodell claimed them to be “good investments.”
The Jets claimed in TV and radio ads that fans had better hurry because the PSLs were nearly sold out. Complete nonsense. Phone reps promised buyers privileged access to tickets of other Meadowlands events, such as concerts. That, too, as the New Jersey Sports & Exposition Authority assured us, was nonsense.
And buried deep within the Jets’ PSL contracts was word that whatever promises were made to potential purchasers to close this deal should be ignored.
The Mets have made a mockery of good-faith relationships with their customers — from nearly doubling the price of tickets from
Shea Stadium to Citi Field, to onerous, unexplained tack-on purchasing (the convenience in “convenience fees” belongs to the team) to the bundling of tickets to force fans to buy tickets to big-draw weekend games only if they buy four or five unwanted tickets to weeknight games.
And now, in the throes of a health and finance crisis, they demand $33,000 in way-upfront money from a fellow who financially supported the team for 31 years — through thick, thin and thinner.