HOPE 'GONE WITH DON'
Iranians fear Biden boost to ayatollahs
For some Iranians, President Trump’s hard-line strategy against their country brought political hope even as it brought economic misery.
But they expect just the opposite from President-elect Joe Biden: The economy might improve, but the chances that the dictatorial ayatollahs could fall are fading fast.
Two years after the US imposed tough sanctions on Iran after withdrawing from the nuclear deal, Iran’s economy is crippled, the Times of London reported. Millions of the country’s middle class have fallen into poverty, while inflation has skyrocketed to 41 percent.
Mass demonstrations have roiled the country for nearly a year. Tens of thousands took to the streets last November to protest a doubling of gas prices. In January, Iran downed a Ukrainian commercial airliner, igniting more unrest. Crowds demanded the resignation of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, yelling, “Death to the dictator.”
But some Iranians believe an outside force is needed to help bring political reform, and say Trump would have been that force if he had a second term.
They compare Trump’s approach to President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 challenge to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev — demanding he “tear down” the Berlin Wall. Foreign policy experts credited Reagan’s words with helping usher the Soviet Union’s collapse.
“The Trump administration was the only US administration to distinguish between Iran in terms of its people, history and geography, and the Islamic Republic as its governing body,” said one Iranian Trump supporter who lives in the city of Shiraz. “From this viewpoint, the Islamic Republic is no longer an unalterable fact, and it could change.”
For some, Biden’s plans to reenter the nuclear deal and talk to Iran’s leaders are seen as a way to perpetuate the ayatollahs’ rule.
“Trump is kind of attractive for people like the Iranian middle class because he bullies anyone — and in Iran, the one who bullies, he or she has power,” said a journalist who lives in Tehran.
A story that the journalist wrote online about the US election generated a surprising amount of pro-Trump responses.
“The feedback I received showed people maybe want Trump to win, and it really shocked me,” she said. “I know there are lots of people who think it’s not so good for us that Biden is here because he’ll talk to the government . . . and the Islamic Republic will survive.“
But experts doubt another four years of Trump would have led to a change in leadership.
“Had Trump won, we would have expected inflation to continue and to worsen. That had been the trend over the past year, and was exacerbated by COVID-19,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the think tank Bourse & Bazaar. “That would have caused an increase in political instability . . . it would probably have led to the government being somewhat delegitimized and a low turnout in elections. But these are all very different from the collapse of the regime.”
Ellie Geranmayeh, of the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted crackdowns have followed protests and no opposition leaders strong enough to command an uprising have emerged.
“There is a lot of frustration at the political leadership, but many people are focused on making ends meet,” she said.