HEAT CHECK
WHO’S HOT AND WHO’S NOT FOR FANTASY BASEBALL IN ’21?
The drafts are over, and now it’s time to see if the team you assembled has what it takes to carry you to fantasy glory.
It’s time to see if that underthe-radar player you selected two rounds above his average draft position will pay off the way you hoped, or if that normally steady veteran begins to show his age or continues to defy everything you know to be true about aging players (hello, Nelson Cruz).
It’s time to see if that young phenom with tons of upside lives up to the hype, or if there’s an unheralded player who comes out of nowhere and outshines the biggest of stars. It’s time to play ball. But before the season starts, it’s time for Roto Rage’s seventh annual Overrated/Underrated Fantasy Team. Here’s this year’s squad:
FIRST BASE OVERRATED: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays
His power and Hall of Fame lineage, mixed with the fact he’s hitting in the middle of a stacked Toronto lineup, make him a very exciting player. But the results have been underwhelming.
UNDERRATED: C.J. Cron, Rockies
Healthy? Check. Starting? Check. Starting half his games in a ballpark where you can hit a pebble out of the ballpark with a paper clip? Check. He hit .253 while averaging 28 homers and 76 RBIs in 2018-19. This is a match made in heaven.
SECOND BASE OVERRATED: Whit Merrifield, Royals
Reasons for concern: His walk rate, on-base percentage, average and stolen base totals have all declined in each of the past three seasons.
UNDERRATED: Nick Madrigal, White Sox
Among players with a minimum of 100 plate appearances last season, he had the sixth highest average (.340) and the second lowest strikeout percentage (6.4) in the majors. Offers little power, but his elite average and speed on the basepaths help.
SHORTSTOP OVERRATED: Adalberto Mondesi, Royals
No one has stolen more bases than Mondesi over the past two seasons. It would sound better if he wasn’t a .251 career hitter with an ugly .284 OBP, 29.7 percent strikeout rate and 4.3 walk rate.
UNDERRATED: Andres Gimenez, Indians
Double-digit homer and steal potential with a .250-ish average. Sound sort of like Mondesi? He may not steal nearly as many bases, but he’ll have a .330-ish OBP and was a heck of a lot cheaper on draft day.
THIRD BASE OVERRATED: Nolan Arenado, Cardinals
Arenado is a .263 hitter away from Coors Field and is coming off a season in which he hit a careerworst .253 with a .738 OPS, his lowest mark since 2013. Now he calls St. Louis home. No thanks. UNDERRATED:
Rafael Devers, Red Sox Despite being drafted as the sixthor seventh-best third baseman, Devers is a top-three fantasy option at his position, period.
CATCHER OVERRATED: J.T. Realmuto, Phillies
Best fantasy catcher out there? Sure, but still worried about wear and tear on the 30-year-old. Realmuto’s numbers were solid in 2020, but it didn’t hurt that 18.5 percent of his plate appearances came as a DH (he hit .364 in those at-bats). He won’t have that luxury this season.
UNDERRATED: Jorge Alfaro, Marlins
Strikes out a ton but hit .262 while averaging 14 homers, 47 RBIs, four stolen bases and a .734 OPS from 2018-19.
OUTFIELD OVERRATED: Aaron Judge, Yankees
Cue the hate mail. So much talent, but so many injuries. Until he proves he can stay healthy, he’ll be among the overrated.
UNDERRATED: Mike Yastrzemski, Giants
May not be a Hall of Famer like his grandfather, but he can do plenty. He has 30-homer potential and the ability to drive in (and score) runs. He will also get on base (top-20 OBP in 2020) while hitting for a solid average.
STARTING PITCHER OVERRATED: Walker Buehler, Dodgers
Despite having the stuff of an ace, a potential innings limit and deep Dodgers rotation could eat into his workload.
UNDERRATED: Joe Musgrove, Padres
Love his move to San Diego. Among pitchers who threw a minimum of 30 innings in 2020, Musgrove ranked sixth in strikeouts per nine innings (12.48) and 16th in swinging strike rate (14.4 percent). Oh, and from 2017-20, his FIP was consistently 0.4 runs (or more) lower than his ERA, meaning he was unlucky (largely with lousy teams in Pittsburgh).
RELIEF PITCHER OVERRATED: James Karinchak, Indians
Sure, he held opponents to a .159 average while striking out 48.6 percent of the batters he faced, but he has one career save and has pitched in just 32 games.
UNDERRATED: Craig Kimbrel, Cubs
Despite pitching 7 ¹/₃ scoreless innings with 13 strikeouts, no walks and a .125 opponent average over his final eight appearances of 2020, he enters 2021 as an overlooked closer.