One Man’s show
Jays hurler making immediate fantasy splash
BEING a first-round pick seems to be a bit of a curse. Though fame and fortune often come with being one of the top selections, so do hype and expectation. That can be a bad thing, especially when we’re living in a world in which everyone wants immediate results.
Though we all get excited when a first-round pick gets the call to the majors, it doesn’t mean success is automatic.
Look at Logan Gilbert, who was featured in this space just two weeks ago. The Mariners’ 2018 first-round pick has struggled over his first three big league starts, but that doesn’t make his future any less bright. It just means it may take some time for him to figure things out. For some, it may take a few weeks, months or years to find what it takes to succeed.
So, what about Toronto’s Alek Manoah, the 11th-overall pick in the 2019 draft. He gave fantasy owners the results they craved this week, but was it just a case of beginner’s luck?
After Manoah made just six starts in Low-A in 2019 (0-1, 2.65 ERA, 27 Ks), COVID-19 canceled the 2020 minor league season, and he wasn’t seen again until making three Triple-A starts this year (3-0, 0.50 ERA, 27 strikeouts, 0.56 WHIP).
Those nine minor league starts were all the Blue Jays needed to see, and Manoah made his big league debut against the Yankees on Thursday. He allowed two hits (both singles) over six scoreless innings while striking out seven and walking two.
One of the most impressive parts of his debut was the balanced usage of his four-pitch repertoire. He threw his fourseamer the most (34.1 percent), followed by his slider (29.5), changeup (21.6) and sinker (14.8). And he had success with each pitch. The Yankees hit .143 with a walk and three strikeouts against his fastball, which averaged 95 mph and had a max velocity of 97.3 mph. According to Statcast, Manoah struck out 31.8 percent of the batters he faced, and had a 42.9 percent whiff rate with his fastball. The Bombers went hitless against Manoah’s slider and changeup, striking out four times total between the two pitches. He had a 33.3 put-away percentage and 16.7 percent whiff rate with his slider, and a 42.9 percent whiff rate with his changeup. Yes, it is one start and it was against a Bombers’ offense that isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders (hitting .230 as a team), but Manoah made a great first impression. He didn’t look as raw as one might expect from a pitcher whose professional experience consisted of nine starts, and his 1.79 FIP and 1.47 xERA are good signs, too.
As of Friday morning, Manoah was the most added pitcher in ESPN leagues. If he is available in your league, it should be a priority to make sure he is on your side.
Which former first-round pick was the second-most added player in ESPN leagues this week? James Kaprielian, the Yankees’ first-round pick (16th overall) in 2015. After spending all of 2017 and 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and being traded to Oakland in 2017, he made his forgettable debut in 2020, pitching to a 7.36 ERA over 3 ²/₃ innings.
Fast forward to 2021, and Kaprielian is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA, 19 strikeouts, 3.1 walks per nine and a 0.91 WHIP over his first three starts.
Hitters are 1-for-15 (.067) with five strikeouts against his slider, which he is using 21.5 percent of the time. He owns a 33.3 percent whiff rate, a 14.5 percent swinging strike rate and a 20.8 putaway percentage with the pitch. Opponents are also hitting .125 with a 17.9 percent swinging strike rate against his changeup, and hitting .189 with eight strikeouts against his fastball.
His next three starts are projected to come against the Mariners, Rockies and Royals, so now is a good time to add him.