Gray matters
Rockies hurler can provide late fantasy boost
THE TRADE deadline is less than a week away, the rumor mill is swirling and lots of movement for solid fantasy options should be expected.
We know the biggest rental names on the market include Kris Bryant, Trevor Story and Javier Baez. We know the biggest controllable players available include Jose Berrios, Craig Kimbrel, Joey Gallo and Kyle Gibson. The Twins have already unloaded the ageless Nelson Cruz to the Rays.
There are lots of other players who could find themselves in new homes by the end of the week — and sometimes that change of scenery helps players soar to new heights.
The Rockies’ Jon Gray has always been an intriguing, yet ultimately maddening, fantasy option. He is a guy capable of striking out a batter per inning (9.1 per nine for his career), but he also is a guy who walks 7.8 percent of the batters he faces. He has been injury-prone, making more than 30 starts in a season just once and 25 or more in just three of his seven seasons. He also has had an ERA under 3.80 just twice, one of which happens to be this year.
Over his first 17 starts, Gray is 6-6 with a 3.68 ERA (his lowest mark since 2017) and 8.4 strikeouts per nine.
He is walking batters a career-worst 9.5 percent of the time (3.6 per nine, 12th worst in the majors), but the rest of his numbers are quite promising.
Opponents are hitting .217 against him, which not only is a career-best mark, but also ranks 18th in the NL among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 90 innings. He is striking out 22.3 percent of his opponents, has the lowest WHIP (1.22) of his career, an 11.2 percent swinging strike rate and his 3.56 xERA justifies his 3.68 ERA.
If you look at Gray’s pitch breakdown, he is humiliating hitters with his secondary pitches. Opponents are hitting .141 with 55 strikeouts (a 38.7 percent whiff rate) and 17.5 swinging strike rate against his slider, a pitch he is using 36.6 percent of the time. He has used the slider as his putaway pitch 26.6 percent of the time.
Opponents are also hitting .182 with a 31.8 percent whiff rate against his curveball and .194 with a 22.7 whiff rate against his changeup, which he throws 10.7 percent of the time.
It is his fastball, which he throws 47.4 perc the time and ha mum velocity of 98 mph, that isn’t fooling anyone. Though Gray has a careerhigh 19.2 percent whiff rate with the pitch, opponents are hitting .298 against it with six homers and 9.7 percent walk rate. His 7.6 percent swinging strike rate with the pitch is a career-best mark, but he isn’t missing enough bats.
Many would normally shy away from a historically inconsistent pitcher throwing half his games at Coors Field, but that would be a mistake with Gray. In 10 starts in Denver this year, he is 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA, 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.05 WHIP. He has fared much worse on the road, going 1-4 with a 4.54 ERA, 8.6 strikeouts per nine and a 1.49 WHIP in seven starts.
Gray’s two (potential) starts before the trade deadline will come on the road against the Dodgers and Padres. He will take the ball Sunday in Los Angeles, where he is 1-6 with a 6.82 ERA and 1.78 WHIP over starts against the Dodgers this year, including a nodecision last Sunday when he gave up just two runs over seven innings. After that, he is in line to start in San Diego, where he is 6-4 with a 2.89 ERA in 11 career starts, including a win on July 11, when he limited the Padres to one run over six innings.
Now is a good time to snag Gray, even if he sits on your bench for his next two starts versus imposing offensive threats. He is owned in just 40 percent of ESPN leagues, but that number could rise quickly — especially if he lands in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.