THROWN OFF BALANCE
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The three possible outcomes are the same for both Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson, though the circumstances under which the two quarterbacks arrived at those crossroads are very different. As all NFL training camps get underway this week, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over two great quarterbacks who want fresh starts and two front offices set against granting those wishes. How landscape-altering are these resolutions going to be? If Rodgers returns to the Packers, they might win the Super Bowl. If Watson eturns to the Texans, they should win nough games to avoid the No. 1 pick in he 2022 draft. Watson’s distrust of the Texans — purred when they reneged on a promise o give him input into the general managr and coach hirings — prompted a trade demand in January. Rodgers’ distrust of he Packers — growing ever since Green Bay’s surprise selection of quarterback Jordan Love in the 2020 draft — caused him to skip mandatory minicamp for the first time in his career. He has not yet demanded a trade.
It’s not an apples-to-apples comparison because Watson also faces a civil lawsuit brought by 22 females who allege sexual misconduct. The suit makes Watson’s $156 million contract virtually untradeable until there is more clarity around his liability and potential sanctions.
The NFL typically does not discipline players until the legal system runs its course. One often-used, time-buying scenario would be Roger Goodell putting Watson on the Commissioner’s Exempt List to keep him out of Texans training camp.
Rodgers reportedly turned down a two-year extension that would’ve kept him under the Packers’ control through 2025 and made him the highest-paid player in the NFL, which illustrates the relationship is damaged beyond anything money can repair. Many NFL decision-makers believe he wants to reach free agency as soon as possible, to match the power cultivated by Tom Brady and NBA superstars.
Hoping time heals all wounds, the Packers had no reason to trade Rodgers over the past three months. But now? Deadlines spur action. And the Packers are losing footing in the court of public opinion because of reports of brokendown contract
negotiations with star receiver Davante Adams.
Rodgers must show his hand first. Will he report to training camp or hold out? Fines kick in on the sixth day of a holdout, by which time the Packers had better know if they are going to call Rodgers’ bluff and see if he will sit out a season in his late prime, or trade the future Hall of Famer for assets to enhance Love’s chances of succeeding. If draft picks, rather than help in 2021, are the desired return, Rodgers’ trade value will be just as high — or higher — in October as in July.
In a league in which Brady left the Patriots and immediately lifted the Buccaneers from a 13-year-playoff drought to a championship, the Broncos lead the pack of dreamers at getting their hands on a newly motivated Rodgers, who has had four seasons end one step from the Super Bowl.
Watson’s market would’ve been robust, given his age (25) and contract controllability. There once was talk of four first-round draft picks as the can’t-refuse price.
The picture has changed, because even if the suit is settled or dismissed in time for Watson to be on the field this year, he must answer for his alleged behavior. Any team looking to make a trade (the Eagles, Broncos and Dolphins come to mind) would have to weigh the risks for being seen as ignorant to claims he used his power and influence as an NFL quarterback to victimize massage therapists.