Time to Pack it in?
Rodgers, Green Bay are not as bad as they looked Sunday, but are definitely in decline
LAS VEGAS — During his winter, spring and summer of discontent, Aaron Rodgers searched for ways to escape Green Bay. He tried to force a trade, flirted with a career change to “Jeopardy!” and threatened to retire.
The NFL’s reigning MVP did everything but focus on football, and it showed Sunday when the 37year-old quarterback took the most lopsided beating of his career in a 38-3 loss to the Saints. In reality, mostly for financial reasons, Rodgers had no choice but to return to the Packers, and he appeared similarly disinterested in his season debut.
Is it an overreaction to say the Packers and Rodgers would have been better off going their separate ways? Yes. Rodgers admitted he was bad, but also said it was only one game and there are 16 remaining. All of that is accurate. In this case, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
The truth is the Packers, off consecutive 13-win seasons that ended in NFC title games, still are good enough to win a bad division, but they are declining from elite status and Rodgers is not going to be as great as he was last year.
“The Packers looked absolutely awful,” said Vinny Magliulo, veteran Las Vegas oddsmaker and Gaughan Gaming sportsbook director. “We did not see the real Green Bay, I don’t believe, and we did not see the real Rodgers. I think there will be a bounce back by the Packers.”
Rodgers will bounce back and the Packers will follow to an extent. It helps their cause to be in the NFC North, where the Bears, Lions and Vikings all took ugly losses in Week 1. Green Bay gets a reprieve as a 10.5-point home favorite against Detroit on Monday night.
It should take some time for the betting public to regain faith in the Packers, a team with problems beyond their unhappy quarterback who threw two interceptions.
All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari will miss at least five more weeks with an injury, and the running attack was impotent without him. The defense allowed Jameis Winston to pass for five touchdowns without a sack or interception.
It’s unreasonable to expect Rodgers to repeat last year. It’s reasonable to expect the Packers to win nine or 10 games and control a division with no other apparent contenders. But don’t invest in Super Bowl futures on Green Bay because the NFC West has three teams that are better.
It’s important for bettors to resist knee-jerk reactions from Week 1 and attempt to separate fact from fiction in search of truths.
The truth is Josh Allen will rebound and the Bills will be fine.
Allen was sacked three times and lost a fumble as Buffalo let a 10-0 halftime lead slip away in a 23-16 loss to the Steelers. The game was won by Pittsburgh’s defense and special teams, with the turning point coming on a blocked punt for a touchdown early in the fourth quarter. The Bills finished with a 371-252 advantage in total yards and held the Steelers to 75 rushing yards. The betting public piled on the 6.5-point home favorite, and the result made the day for bookmakers.
“The outright win by the Steelers was our biggest win in a long time,” Westgate SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “There could be overreactions to the Steelers-Bills game. The Bills are still going to be very good.”
The truth is Trevor Lawrence is legit, but the Jaguars are the worst team in the league today.
There will be good and bad from Lawrence, who passed for 332 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions on Sunday, and he will do enough to win a few games. But Jacksonville is not getting over its posted season win total of 6.5, not after getting trashed 37-21 by the Texans, who were power-rated No. 32 prior to Week 1. Urban Meyer has a lot to learn about coaching in the NFL. Another truth: The Bears and Falcons are almost as bad as the Jaguars and Texans.
The truth is Kyler Murray is in the MVP race.
BetMGM lists the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes as the 11/2 favorite, with Murray the second choice at 9/1. It’s an overreaction to put Murray in front of Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Allen and Rodgers at this point, but Murray will put up big numbers in a wide-open offense. He dropped four touchdown passes on the Titans in a 38-13 win. Another truth: Murray is not worth a bet at those odds, yet the Saints’ Winston is worth a look at 25/1.
The truth is Jalen Hurts shows more promise than Daniel Jones.
While the quarterbacks for the Eagles and Giants each have lots of skeptics, Hurts might have more upside. He compiled 326 total yards (264 passing, 62 rushing) in Philadelphia’s 32-6 win at Atlanta. Jones has had more time to prove something with little progress, and Giants offensive coordinator Jason Garrett lacks the imagination to get Jones to the next level.