BEASTS TO LEASTS
WRs Cooper, Lockett have histories of wild variance
THERE are few things more exciting that a feast. So much to eat and gorge upon, you leave feeling satisfied, if not guilty for your gluttony.
Yet, few things are as miserable a famine. You’re starved for sustenance, you’ll gobble up any crumbs you can find.
The same holds true for certain players in fantasy football. One week, you sit back and relax, having nourished you hunger for fantasy points. Yet the next you might resort to cheering every minimal catch while desperately pleading for more touches.
Few embody this fantasy phenomenon as much as wide receivers. One week, they have the quarterback’s eye, the next they could be the odd man out. Take Tyler Lockett. He is a go-to name in feast-or-famine land.
Over the course of his sevenyear career, spanning 96 games, he has had 11 100-yard receiving games, one of which came last week. In the 10 previous times that happened, just once did he managed to top 100 yards in his next game. In his 10 earlier blockbuster games, he had 12 touchdowns. In the 10 games that followed, just four.
So he gains 100-plus yards about 10.4 percent of the time, and a large portion of his 39 career TDs (31 percent) have come in those 10 games. That leaves 89.6 percent of his games as just hohum, or worse. If you combined with his trend rates following big games, there is a 1 percent chance of a big game to follow — backto-back explosive outings have happened just once in 96 games.
Of course, Lockett has a juicy matchup this week against a weak Titans defense. Sitting him will be a tough decision (it all depends on your other options), but knowing his past, we fear it will be a DK Metcalf day instead of another Lockett show.
But is Lockett the most feastor-famine of all the feast-or-famines who have ever feasted-or-famined? Not necessarily. Meet Amari Cooper. In his seven seasons, he has played 94 games. He has 21 100-yard games (22.3 percent) and 59 career TDs. Of those 59 career scores, 21 have come in those 20 big games (35.6 percent).
And in his games that followed his previous top 20? He has topped 100 yards just twice, and has just two TDs in those 20 games, and zero 100-yard-plusTD games. In his previous 2 peak games, he averaged 27.7 PP points. In the 20 games that fol lowed, he averaged 10.9.
His matchup is a little mor precarious than Lockett’s — Dallas faces the Chargers. So what to do with these see-saw fantasy assets? Well, if the decision involves sitting the likes of Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans or someone of that level, we’re benching Cooper and Lockett. But if you option is someone like a Steelers receiver, Jarvis Landry, Julio Jones or worse, no thanks. The temptation of another feast is just too strong.