Don't pay inflated prices on Week 1 surprises
The VSiN NFL handicapper takes a look at some betting angles for two of Sunday’s games.
Broncos at Jaguars: The Broncos averaged only 335 yards per game last year, but generated 420 in Teddy Bridgewater’s first start last Sunday in a 27-13 victory over the Giants as a threepoint road chalk. Speaking of Bridgewater, he now moves to a 37-14 ATS career mark including a stellar 22-3 ATS mark on the road as a starter. That mark is now baked into the cake here.
The look-ahead line at Westgate SuperBook was Denver -3 and was as low as -2.5 at other shops. Now it has jumped to -6 with a couple of rogue -6.5s in the market.
The Urban Meyer era in Jacksonville got off to a rough start last week. The Jaguars trailed 34-7 before eventually losing 37-21 at likely fellow AFC South bottom feeder Houston. The Jaguars gave up 449 yards and allowed a 12for-21 mark on third down. No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence showed flashes of brilliance and flashes of being a rookie with a pair of threes (3 TDs, 3 INTs).
Even though Jacksonville looked poor last week in an inauspicious start for the Meyer regime, both externally and internally, the Broncos are being priced to the moon here. Before the regular season commenced, the Broncos’ projected win total was 7.5. It got a little support for the Over once Bridgewater was named the starter, but the adjusted total is now 10.5. Slow your roll here. Pick: Jaguars, +6 Saints at Panthers: The Saints’ 38-3 victory over Green Bay was not all that shocking considering New Orleans was 8-1 in games over the past two seasons in which Drew Brees did not start and was a 12-4 team last season. The season wins total dropping to 9 or 9.5 seemed a bit extreme. Before we say the Saints are going to be equitable or even greater than previous seasons’ standards, however, keep in mind that New Orleans did benefit from +3 in TO margin.
New starter Jameis Winston’s 148 passing yards were the fewest in a five-touchdown game in NFL history. The Saints are on an 8-1-1 ATS run dating back to last season.
The Panthers led 16-0 at halftime last week and were more dominant than the final score indicated, as the Jets got a late touchdown to make the final score 19-14. Carolina had a 6.0-4.2 yards per play advantage. Sam Darnold threw for 279 yards and a touchdown with zero picks. While Christian McCaffrey failed to find the end zone, he flourished in his new role as Darnold’s best friend, with 187 yards from scrimmage (98 rushing, 89 receiving). The Panthers’ defense has been steadily improving as they have drafted first-rounders on that side of the ball each of the last three years. It showed on Sunday with six sacks.
Meanwhile, the Saints acquired cornerback Bradley Roby in last week’s trade with the Texans, but New Orleans is loaded with defensive injuries. Several linemen are hurt and Marshon Lattimore, their best cornerback, will be out several weeks following thumb surgery. New Orleans also lost Erik McCoy, one of the best centers in the NFC, against the Packers last week.
While the Saints’ demise looks, at first glance, to be greatly exaggerated, the look-ahead line at Westgate SuperBook was a pick ’em and was reopened at -3 and adjusted all the way to -4 before buyback (including mine) came in. Pick: Panthers, +3 Wes Reynolds writes for VSiN.com.