SUSPENDED GAME
Teams will have money to burn, but lockout may delay Hot Stove season
THE SHAME of the coming lockout — I will believe we are getting one when the owners and union don’t have a deal before midnight Dec. 1 — is that this would set up as a sensational Hot Stove campaign.
There are intriguing, difference-making players. More pertinent, however, is a forecast of motivated buyers.
The Yankees and Mets both worked strategically to stay under the luxury-tax threshold in 2021. There is no certainty what the next system will look like — or if there even will be a luxury tax. Regardless, neither New York team will have an excuse not to spend. Plus, if you watched this baseball season, they will have plenty of reasons to fix their teams.
The Red Sox also went under the tax and have done a lot of the heavy lifting to better position their financial future while simultaneously becoming contenders again. The Giants have a ton of money coming off their books. The Phillies — especially if they keep the NL’s longest playoff-less streak (since 2011) — should be motivated buyers because they also stayed under the threshold this year, have Andrew McCutchen’s pact coming off the books and have few other avenues to improve except to spend.
On the subject of the longest postseason-free runs, the Mariners look like they will keep theirs intact (since 2001, the longest in the four major sports leagues). Both agents and executives anticipate Seattle will be the surprise muscle flexer this offseason, trying to augment a young core.
The Rangers and Tigers also will be more willing to spend — expect a lot of Trevor Story going home to Dallas and Carlos Correa/A.J. Hinch reuniting in Detroit talk. I don’t think the Cubs and Nationals will spend lavishly, but I also don’t anticipate either will try a sink-to-thebottom rebuild, positioning them to play in the middle and maybe even upper-middle of the market.
There’s more. The Blue Jays have room to further grow payroll, and the Dodgers will be heard from (especially if Trevor Bauer and his salary are suspended next year). The Angels and Twins have to find pitching, in particular.
Will teams and agents try to jump a potential Dec. 1 lockout by aggressively trying to sign players in November? One veteran agent told me that because there is money to spend in the industry, we should anticipate the lockout — as ownership strategy is to condense the market to, say, a few weeks in March when a new collective bargaining agreement is reached.
Whenever the market arrives — and I will at least root for a timely owner/union settlement and a fun offseason — there will be those who raised their stock in 2021. Thoughts on three:
1. Max Scherzer: In 2012, the righty finished with a 3.74 ERA in his age-27 season and followed with seven years that included three Cy Young wins and no worse than a fifthplace finish. His ERA was 3.74 in the pandemicshortened 2020. His body seemed to be showing signs of the workhorse/power/age combination.
Yet, he just might win his fourth Cy this year. In the final season of arguably the best free-agent contract ever signed by a team (seven years, $210 million by Washington), Scherzer might turn out to be the best in-season trade acquisition ever (by the Dodgers).
For much of this season, I suspected Scherzer, who turned 37 in July, to sign a deal similar to the two-year, $66 million extension that Justin Verlander received after finishing as the AL Cy Young runner-up in 2018. Now if
Scherzer is kept to two years, that number will start at $40 million per, I would think, and could go higher or stretch to three years at $120 million.
He should have lots of teams bidding it up in the biggest markets. It is not hard to make a case that the Mets or Yankees should pair him with Jacob deGrom or Gerrit Cole, respectively. What do the Dodgers do if they have limitations on their payroll — keep Clayton Kershaw in their uniform for his career or sign Scherzer? A strong postseason will only intensify a frenzy.
2. Marcus Semien: In the ninth year of his career and age30 season in 2019, DJ LeMahieu had a 136 OPS-plus and finished fourth for the AL MVP. In the ninth year of his career and age30 season in 2021, Marcus Semien had a 136 OPS-plus before the weekend and seems headed toward no worse than fourth in the AL MVP race. He also finished third ahead of LeMahieu in that 2019 race and can still play short, as he did that year for Oakland as opposed to second this year for Toronto.
LeMahieu used an AL MVP third in the abbreviated 2020 campaign to net a six-year, $90 million pact from the Yanks. But he never wanted to leave. Semien, a year younger, and proving that last year’s downturn was aberrational with the ability to play shortstop and no overpowering ties to Toronto, is going to do better than LeMahieu, helped by his rep as a great teammate.
Also there is this: Once Fernando Tatis Jr. ($340 million) and Francisco Lindor ($341 million) signed extensions, the glamour walk-year shortstops — Javier Baez, Correa, Corey Seager and Story — probably built expectations of their value. Even in this market, none of these guys is likely to approach $340 million. Semien is likely to come in for well less than those dreams, which perhaps gives him and teams a chance to jump the market.
3. Robbie Ray: In 2019-20, Ray had the worst walk percentage (12.9) among the 61 pitchers who made at least 35 starts, the 15th worst ERA (4.86) and the 11th worst OPS against (.803). For 2021, Toronto signed Ray to a oneyear, $8 million deal. He might win the AL Cy Young, leading the league in ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts while dropping his walk rate to 6.3 percent.
Toronto will feel pressure to resign both of its terrific one-year deals, Ray and Semien. It should be noted that the Blue Jays might be onto harnessing pitchers with stuff because the starter with the ninth-worst ERA (5.09) in 2019-20 also has done well in his walk year. That is Steven Matz (12-7, 3.87).
One of Matz’s talented ex-Mets teammates, Zack Wheeler, translated a strong platform year in his age-29 season and elite stuff into a five-year, $118 million deal with the Phillies (and might win the NL Cy Young this year). Ray, who is in his age-29 season, could be shooting in that stratosphere as clubs look to replicate Wheeler.