Lions will fight to the finish again
VSiN’s crew takes a look at some betting angles for Monday night’s game between the Lions and Packers at Lambeau Field.
Will Hill’s overview: Two of the worst performers of Week 1 square off Monday night. The Packers (0-1 SU and ATS) were held to a meager 229 yards and turned the ball over three times in an embarrassing 38-3 loss to the Saints. The Lions (0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS) rallied from down 41-17 late to miraculously cover the late number, losing only 41-33 after scoring 16 points in the final two minutes.
The Packers have the right opponent to get their offense back on track, as the Lions yielded 8 yards per play and will now be without cornerback Jeff Okudah, the third-overall pick in 2020, who ruptured his Achilles tendon. The Packers were -7 on the lookahead line, but even with the poor performance they have been moved to 11.5-point favorites as the Lions and their porous defense are unlikely to attract much support from the betting public. The total is 48.
Chris Andrews’ market report :I opened Green Bay -10.5 at the South Point in Las Vegas. Early bets were on the Packers. I knew we’d get to 11 eventually, so I went there quickly. By late week I was getting two-way action with some buy back on the Lions. I wouldn’t be surprised if the line moved higher before kickoff based on public tendencies. We’ll see how much of a stand sharps want to make on another doubledigit ’dog. My opening total of 48.5 was bet down to 48. Public will probably like Over on game day unless weather becomes a factor.
Dave Tuley’s selection: The public is ready to dismiss a lot of teams off one poor Week 1 performance, such as the Jaguars, Titans, Falcons, Vikings and Giants. The Packers’ 38-3 loss to the Saints was the ugliest of all, yet it appears most people are willing to forgive and forget. Granted, the Lions were being thoroughly dominated by the 49ers before rallying late to get the backdoor cover, but I see that comeback as a great sign that they’ll fight to the end in this game. Besides, are we so sure this isn’t the end of the line for the Aaron Rodgers era that everyone is expecting to end anyway? I’ll take that chance — and the points.
Pick: Lions +11.5.
Ben Brown’s prop bet: The likely game script on Monday completely changes for the Packers from Week 1. In that blowout defeat, Aaron Jones played under 50 percent of the Packers offensive snaps and ran a route on 41.5 percent of drop backs. Green Bay could be much more of a committee running back than preseason expectations. If Jones plays with a 50 percent snap percentage, it’s hard to see a high number of routes run or target share that comes close to touching three. Again, this is likely a negative game script for Jones’ pass-catching situation, which was the exact opposite of last week. In an earlyseason spot with the Packers in control early, one of the safest paths is Jones to finish under on his receptions.
Pick: Aaron Jones under 2.5 receptions (-109)
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