Picking your spots
College football bettors can get edge by assessing matchups & situations
SOMETIMES a bad scheduling spot can be enough of an equalizer not only to help a team cover the spread, but also to even pull the outright upset. The talent gaps in college football can be quite wide, but a lack of focus and preparation can narrow the chasm.
We saw examples of some bad situational spots come through last week. Many were stunned to see Fresno State nearly lose to UNLV, but the Bulldogs were in an awful spot off their win over UCLA. Fresno State was more than a 30-point favorite, but won by only eight.
Western Michigan was a small home favorite against a San Jose State team that had gone to Hawaii for a conference game the previous week. San Jose State managed just 119 total yards in a 23-3 loss in Kalamazoo.
We saw Florida as another example, with a slow start against Tennessee, though the Gators eventually covered the full game with a stop on the final play.
Situational spots aren’t designed to be sole justifications for making a bet. They are designed to be part of the handicapping process to determine whether it can be the tipping point for making a pick.
There are some games that fill the bill for Week 5 for a variety of reasons, and they are ones you may want to take a second or third look at on your betting card.
Minnesota (+2.5, 47.5) at Purdue
What does almost $1 million get you? If you’re the Golden Gophers, an embarrassing loss to Bowling Green. In one of the biggest upsets we’ve seen in 40 years, Minnesota lost 14-10 as a 30.5-point favorite last week and paid a hefty sum for the nonconference game. You have to think this week screams a sense of urgency for the Gophers.
Purdue put a lot into the Notre Dame game two weeks ago and had a rather lethargic performance against Illinois last week. Generally speaking, if I know two teams with limited offenses will be really engaged in the upcoming matchup, my mind gravitates toward the Under.
Kentucky (+8.5, 55.5) vs. No. 10 Florida
This one is personal for Kentucky and just another game for Florida. One would think the extra focus and emphasis would have helped the Wildcats, but that has not been the case. Kentucky won in Gainesville in 2018, ending a streak of 31 straight losses to the Gators.
The Wildcats are getting more than a touchdown here. That illustrates the ongoing talent discrepancy between the teams, as does Florida’s record versus Kentucky. This is still one that the Wildcats pour a lot into every year. I’d expect the same this season and actually do feel like Kentucky plus the points is a good bet with Florida off the Alabama and Tennessee games.
UNLV at UTSA (-21, 56)
This is a fascinating game, but most people won’t realize it because of the big spread and the other games of interest this week. UTSA had a jubilant celebration at the Liberty Bowl last week after erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter to beat Memphis 31-28. It was the second big road win for UTSA after it defeated Illinois in Week 1.
This is the kind of spot bettors like to refer to as “fat and happy.” UTSA has a conference game with Western Kentucky on deck. The Roadrunners are 4-0 and have two emotional wins against teams from better conferences. Now the lowly Rebels come to town and will get no respect from UTSA.
While some would think UNLV would be bummed to have lost to Fresno State in a winnable game, it had to be a big confidence boost for the Rebels. They hung with a ranked team. In some respects, they were better than the ranked team.
UNLV hopes QB Doug Brumfield can play in this one, but the Rebels are getting a lot of points against a UTSA team that might not be fully engaged. UNLV is the side I’d look at here.
Western Kentucky at No. 17 Michigan St. (-11, 64)
Western Kentucky will try again to beat a Big Ten opponent as it visits East Lansing. WKU came up just short last week in a 33-31 loss to Indiana, the second straight one-score defeat for the Hilltoppers. Tyson Helton had some extremely questionable clock management late in the game or the outcome could have been different.
What I’m looking at, however, is the spot for Michigan State. The Spartans have been bet up to double-digit favorites, which is understandable given their body of work. Michigan State, however, just pulled off an improbable comeback win over Nebraska by virtue of a late punt-return touchdown. After going on the road to beat Northwestern and Miami, the Spartans tipped Nebraska in overtime to move to 2-0 in the Big Ten.