Bettin' all day on Sunday night
VSiN’s NFL experts offer up a side, a total and a prop for Sunday night’s showdown between the Bills and Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
Youmans: A mysterious season-opening loss to the Steelers is all but forgotten in the Bills’ rear-view mirror. Buffalo has bulldozed three weak opponents (Dolphins, Washington, Texans) with serious defensive and quarterback problems, so facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be a big step up in class. Kansas City obviously has defensive issues, but I doubt Josh Allen has the ability to match Mahomes in a shootout. Mahomes dissected the Buffalo defense for 325 passing yards and three touchdowns in a 38-24 win in last season’s AFC title game. The price on the Chiefs at home is rarely this cheap. Youmans’ pick: Chiefs -2.5. Hill: I like the Under here and will bet it … just not yet. I believe these highprofile teams and two MVP candidate quarterbacks will draw plenty of “Over” money, especially late Sunday, as it’s the stand-alone game in prime time and the last game of the day. The Bills are allowing a league-best 4.0 yards per play on defense, but it is their approach that makes the Under so appealing for me.
These two teams played in Week 6 last year, and Bills coach Sean McDermott made no secret of the fact that his “two-deep safety” tactic on defense was the way to contain the Chiefs. He even commented after the game that despite the loss, the game plan was one he would duplicate if given another opportunity. The Bills coaxed the Chiefs into 46 (!!) rushing attempts for 245 yards. While the Chiefs moved the ball at will, they were held to just 26 points.
When they met in the AFC Championship game last January, Patrick Mahomes threw for 325 yards and the Chiefs ran it just 25 times, piling up 38 points en route to a runaway victory. Mahomes has been more turnoverprone this year (four INTs), so I look for the Bills to back off, dare the Chiefs to run the ball and use long, time-consuming drives, hoping Mahomes gets impatient and forces a throw at some point. I expect Buffalo’s approach to be similar to the Week 6 matchup last year, which ended with a 26-17 final. Wait, as you’re likely to get the better of the number closer to kickoff, but take the Under. Hill’s pick: Under 56.5. Brown: Buffalo’s offense appears to be fully back to its 2020 form after looking lost in its first game of the season. The only thing that hasn’t returned fully is Allen passing for touchdowns. He has failed to eclipse his prop number in three of four games to start the season.
The obvious reason is that Allen hasn’t had the game script to continue throwing, as he easily could have thrown more than 2.5 passing touchdowns against the Dolphins and Texans, if necessary. There are no game-script concerns for Allen on Sunday night, as everyone projects a back-and-forth shootout with Mahomes and the Kansas City offense.
Allen should clear this prop hurdle easily, given that the Bills’ offense leads the league in early-down pass rate over expectation. At a +140 price, this looks like the ideal target to bet on “SNF.”
Brown’s pick: Josh Allen Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+140).