Isles will be masters of Metropolitan
The Metropolitan Division is very balanced. Just about every team has a chance to make the playoffs and there is no clear-cut leader of the pack. The Hurricanes would have been favored to win the division, but they made several questionable moves in the offseason. And the Islanders are the team most likely to benefit from their missteps.
The Islanders played in the toughest division in 2020-21, and although they finished in fourth place, the team looked to be the best of the bunch through much of the season. There’s parity in the Metro and it won’t be easy, but the Islanders have come close to winning this division before — finishing second in 2014-15 and 2018-19 — and can come out on top this time.
The Islanders are a low-event team and don’t dominate possession, but they make the best of their opportunities and do an excellent job of limiting chances in their own end. Last season, the Islanders had the sixth-best expected goal differential and the eighth-best goal differential. This had everything to do with their defense, though, as the Islanders grade out as an average team on offense. Losing Jordan Eberle in expansion won’t help, but Zach Parise could replace some of what was lost. The team also will get captain Anders Lee back after he missed all but 27 games last season. If a player like Anthony Beauvillier can increase his production, the team might not even notice Eberle is gone.
New York was the second-best defensive team last season. Only the Golden
Knights allowed fewer goals, and one of the most impressive things is that their goaltenders didn’t have to carry them. Islanders opponents generated 2.04 expected goals per 60 minutes but scored only 1.92 goals during that time. In other words, the fact that the Islanders have two great goaltenders is more of a compliment to the rest of the team than a crutch that holds them up. Semyon Varlamov posted a .927 save percentage last season and saved the team almost 10 goals above expected, while Ilya Sorokin finished with a .918 mark and about three goals saved above expected. The Islanders don’t rely on their goaltenders by any means, but they can if the situation calls for it.
All in all, we’re looking at the same group from last year with a few tweaks. The team’s average height is a little bit taller now that 6-foot-9 Zdeno Chara has come full circle and signed with the team for one year. Besides that, not much has changed. The Islanders make teams play their style of game, and though they will struggle against teams with lots of offensive weaponry, they should beat up on about two-thirds of the teams in the league more often than not. Some of their veterans, particularly those on the fourth line, could lose some effectiveness sooner rather than late. But the Islanders are the only team in the division without at least one glaring hole, and statistically they’re better than the other seven teams in just about every category.