SURVIVOR 7: PATS WILL JET IT DONE
Survivor sweats were few and far between in Week 6, as the big favorites mostly won with ease and the majority of contestants lived to fight another day.
Dallas was my pick in Week 6, so it was an unnecessary struggle with the Colts on the board, but the Cowboys got there. Through six weeks, my picks have been the Rams, Packers, Broncos, Bengals, Ravens and Cowboys.
Week 7 does not feature difficult decisions for survivor players. The most difficult decision for most will be which double-digit favorite to take. There are three and there could be a fourth, depending on how the line goes between Washington and Green Bay.
Sometimes you run into weeks like this and it feels pretty good to have multiple options, but this is when you really have to consider that season-long blueprint and decide which one makes the most sense going forward. I’ve mentioned that the core concept of this type of contest is to go 1-0 every week, but you should also be positioning yourself for as many 1-0 weeks as possible.
The latter is at the forefront in Week 7, and this week’s pick is the Patriots, who are 7-point favorites over the Jets at Foxborough on Sunday.
Despite four double-digit favorites this week, I’m not picking any of them for this survivor report. Contestants across pools are likely to burn a really good team such as the Rams, Buccaneers, Packers or Cardinals this week based on the huge spreads. Sneaking a team like New England into the mix isn’t a bad idea.
First, in the extremely unlikely event that one of the double-digit favorites loses, you’ll avoid that land mine. Second, this is the only opportunity to take New England until Week 17 against Jacksonville. Third, you’ll save those four more trustworthy teams, if you haven’t used any of them already.
The Patriots won 25-6 over the Jets in Week 2. Zach Wilson and the Jets don’t really look any better now than they did then. The Patriots are 2-4, but they’re not that far from being 4-2 with nearmisses against the Buccaneers and Cowboys.
The Patriots don’t beat many offenses from a yards-per-play standpoint, but the Jets are one. New England has 5.3 yards per play to just 4.6 for the Jets, who rank 31st in the league. The Jets’ defense grades slightly better in yards per play on defense, but that comes solely from New England’s last game, when Dallas put up 567 yards.
The line for that Week 2 game was -5.5 or -6. That was with the Patriots on the road at MetLife Stadium and with Mac Jones in his first road start. I actually really like the way Jones has played, which is more than I can say about Wilson. I don’t think this line is right. It should be closer to 9 or 10, but there is a perception bias against New England with the 2-4 record and the close win over the Texans — which, let’s be honest, was a horrendous spot for the Patriots.
The Patriots have to feel as if they still have a shot at the playoffs. This is a must-win if so, and it is really hard to see Bill Belichick not taking advantage of a rookie quarterback again, as he so often has, with a 23-6 SU record against first-year quarterbacks.
Adam Burke analyzes the NFL for VSiN.com. VSiN programming can be heard on iHeartRadio platforms.