The price of Diamond
Beware recency bias tax when it comes to wagering on Poirier
VSiN’s MMA expert looks at some betting angles for the two marquee matchups at Saturday’s UFC 269 in Las Vegas.
Charles Oliveira (+135) vs. Dustin Poirier (-165), lightweight (155 pounds) championship
Poirier has become a household name since defeating Conor McGregor twice this year, and while Poirier is the top-ranked contender, most regard him as the champ. This bout is important for Poirier, who wants to pair the championship belt with the riches and fame he earned from those two fights with McGregor. It all seems wrapped up nicely for him.
Poirier has been in with the elite of the division and has dominated, except for a onesided loss to then-champ Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2019. He had won four impressive fights before that and has added Dan Hooker and McGregor pelts to his mantle since.
Poirier at his best is extremely well-rounded. He’s large for the weight class and has deft striking, solid grappling, wrestling and is as tough and determined as any athlete on the roster. The fact that he’s a southpaw adds more complexity to his arsenal.
Oliveira and fight fans everywhere realize that the interim championship he won against Michael Chandler in May only gave Oliveira the right to face Poirier on Saturday to determine the legitimate champion of the lightweight division.
Oliveira is an underappreciated fighter. Some years ago, he toiled, struggled and bounced between two divisions trying to find himself. He even picked up a “quitter” reputation that he has since completely overcome.
Oliveira is the taller, longer man, and his length, quickness, striking accuracy and third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiujitsu will challenge the physically thicker Poirier. Look no further than Poirier’s relatively lackluster performance against the long, lanky Hooker to envision the jeopardy Oliveira will present to Poirier.
Oliveira is well aware that really owns no title until this bout with Poirier is settled. The apex of his career lies ahead, and we can rely on his 100 percent focus, determination and effort.
For Poirier, this has been a huge year. He earned the riches and fame that he so yearned for when he beat McGregor twice. He has successfully created and funded a dynamic charity in Louisiana for underprivileged children, which is admirable but surely takes some mental energy to pioneer.
Add to those distractions the fact that this was Poirier’s third five-round championship title fight training camp this year. I can’t help but believe that Poirier’s performance will be affected by all of this on Saturday.
Two mentally draining and physically taxing camps then the actual bouts against an icon like McGregor now backed up with a third camp against an opponent far more versed and dangerous than the one-dimensional McGregor.
Poirier opened -150 for this fight. He is now -165, and his price is rising. I believe Poirier is the recipient of recency bias. It’s my judgment that one is paying a hefty tax considering Poirier at this price and in this situation.
The pick: Oliveira, +135. I’ll take a unit now and if it goes up, I’ll take another.
Amanda Nunes (-1000) vs. Julianna Pena (+600), women’s bantamweight (135 pounds) championship
Champion Nunes shares the title of most dominant women’s mixed martial artist of all time with Valentina Shevchenko, if you ask me.
Nunes, who also owns the featherweight (145-pound) title, has basically cleaned out two divisions in the UFC, though this is her first bout at bantamweight since 2019. Nunes has earned a brown belt in Judo, a black belt in Brazilian jiujitsu and she’s a most powerful striker who is also gifted on the ground.
Pena, the “Venezuelan Vixen,” arrives on a one-fight winning streak! Yes, she was awarded this bout after a onesided win over Sara McMann. In her previous bout, she was finished by Germaine de Randamie, who, by the way, was dominated by Nunes in 2019.
Pena has decent striking ability, but she won’t want to stand with Nunes. Her only path to victory will be to try to bum-rush Nunes, fight crazy, then take Nunes to the canvas for a grappling exposition.
If Pena has the tough-mindedness, wrestling, strength and cardio to get this bout to the floor, she’ll have a chance to compete. Shy of that, this bout sets up to be an exhibition. Total in this fight 1.5 Over -110.
Lou Finocchiaro handicaps MMA for Point Spread Weekly, VSiN’s digital magazine for sports bettors.