SOME PUZZLING DECISIONS
Hal’s Yankees have many missing pieces to find when lockout ends
IF I were to defend the Yankees’ inactivity before the lockout, it would be: 1. They did nothing to add to their major league roster beyond retaining Joely Rodriguez, yet they still project to a 2022 payroll of about $225 million for luxury tax purposes (assuming there is a luxury tax in the next collective bargaining agreement). So maybe “cheap” isn’t the correct criticism.
2. The teams that mainly did the spending so far have not made the playoffs in quite a while and were playing catch-up on financial behemoths such as the Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox, all of whom were mostly quiet. The Rangers, for example, signed the two biggest contracts and took two of the five big shortstops off the board, investing $500 million on Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Yet, consider that a beginner kit because they are still three good starting pitchers away from highend contention (more if you don’t like their Jon Gray signing, which I don’t).
3. A couple of hundred free agents remain. The Yankees begin the process with Gerrit Cole, Jonathan Loaisiga, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and, in theory, a healthy DJ LeMahieu, which means a pretty strong start.
But I cannot fully defend the Yankees. That they have $225 million invested and still don’t have a shortstop or first baseman, or a trustworthy catcher, center fielder or No. 2 starter speaks to a combination of not spending wisely, not having enough difference-makers come through their system and not determining why players such as Miguel Andujar, Greg Bird, Clint Frazier, Deivi Garcia, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres and Luke Voit have regressed under their care to the point that, for example, Bird and Frazier were released without returning any value to the Yankees.
An optimist will believe that LeMahieu will be healthy and return to 2019-20 LeMahieu. That liberated from shortstop, Torres will return to the 2018-2019 version of Torres. That the brilliant late-season relief cameo last year by Luis Severino after three mainly lost seasons pronounces a level of health to suggest he will recapture the 2017-18 version of Severino and be Cole’s copilot.
This is optimism. Or is it living-in-the-past delusion? Should we keep going? That after playing 145 games combined the last three years, Aaron Hicks is going to revive to the production he provided in 2018 — his lone full Yankees season when he was both healthy and successful. That Joey Gallo will be less overwhelmed after his jittery New York debut. That Andujar or Garcia or Sanchez or Voit will rediscover their better pasts. That Nestor Cortes Jr. and Lucas Luetge were not one-season mirages.
The Yankees have enough current talent to be high-end contenders, but too many question marks to stand pat. And I don’t think they will. I think whenever the lockout ends and the free-agency and trade business reopens, there will be a frenzy. And the Yankees will be aggressive.
They were willing to offer one year at $25 million for Justin Verlander
SOME ASSEMBLY REQUIRED:
Hal Steinbrenner’s Yankees are an incomplete ballclub with the sport on hold during its lockout. When the offseason resumes, the team has holes to fill, with options including Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Collin McHugh, Seiya Suzuki, Trevor Story and Matt Olson.
before he agreed to return to the Astros (that deal was not final at the time of the lockout). So Hal Steinbrenner was committing to a $250 millionish payroll, at minimum. Steinbrenner probably will not set a firm budget until a new CBA defines, among other things, luxury tax rules. Still, I would bet Steinbrenner is going to approve a substantial uptick in payroll to, say, the $260 million or more realm. In part, that’s because this version of the Yankees needs his wallet to make themselves more bulletproof. Plus, in Gallo, Judge, Rodriguez, Sanchez, Zack Britton (who probably won’t play in 2022), Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green and Jameson Taillon, the Yankees will have about $75 million in free agents coming off the books after next season. A chunk of that, of course, will be forfeited in arbitration raises, retentions (notably the Yankees want to keep Judge long term) and replacements. But the Yankees believe they will have received low-cost answers by then from their system, in pitching and shortstops Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. What will the Yankees’ priorities be coming out of a lockout? I think they will investigate three big free-agent items: 1. Will Freddie Freeman really leave the Braves? The belief is he wants to stay. But if Atlanta doesn’t go to at least six years at $180 million, would he be receptive to exit? The Yankees and Dodgers, in particular, would be ready to pounce. It would be easier for the Yankees to emphasize defense at short with someone like Andrelton Simmons if they could land Freeman’s lefty bat. My gut: I am less sure than in November, but still believe Freeman and the Braves will figure out a way back to each other. 2. Will the Yankees blink and do a mega-deal with
Carlos Correa? My guess is it would have to be north of Francisco Lindor’s 10 years at $341 million. The Yankees have shown no desire to make an offer that kind of length or total, especially with Judge-ment day approaching. But they have done offseason U-turns before (think Johnny Damon and Mark Teixeira). They have done February surprises (think Roger Clemens and Alex Rodriguez). My gut: The Yankees won’t blink unless Correa has trouble getting that length and agrees to a shorter deal at a higher annual value, like five years at $200 million.
3. Will Trevor Story find a strong multiyear offer? Between a down year and concerns about the health of his throwing arm, Story appeared to be having the most difficulty among the big shortstops in finding a high-end market. He grew up a Derek Jeter fan. LeMahieu is among his best friends. Is it possible that he would take a shorter deal with the Yankees to reestablish his value, say one year at $35 million with a player option for a second season at $35 million? The shorter tenure would work better with the Yankees horizons on working in Peraza or Volpe. I don’t think the Yankees should worry about having too many athletic middle infielders. If they are good enough, they will be able to play elsewhere. My gut: Story will be able to find at least three years or more from the Mariners, Red Sox or some other team that values his glove, athleticism and power.
If my gut is correct on all three, it means none will end up with the Yankees. So what then? I think the Yankees would further investigate a Matt Olson trade. Would they be willing to make The Martian, Jasson Dominguez, the centerpiece to a swap? Or Peraza? Or Austin Wells? The fallback is probably a two-year deal for Anthony Rizzo and then trying to spread money around to provide depth and insurance.
For example, if the Yankees wanted to emphasize defense, it probably would not take a ton of prospect capital if they were willing to absorb most or all of the $6.25 million the Athletics owe shortstop Elvis Andrus in 2022 and the $18 million the Brewers owe Lorenzo Cain. The Yankees would have Gio Urshela and Torres to move to shortstop late if they needed to hit for Andrus (who in theory could be part of a bigger Olson trade). Cain would serve as a rotating part of the outfield, plus insurance for Hicks (Milwaukee has had interest in Voit previously).
Will concerns about health drop Carlos Rodon’s market to one expensive year? If so, should the Yankees gamble on his upside? I would ask the same about Clayton Kershaw, but I think his choices will be to stay with the Dodgers, play at home with the Rangers or retire. Will the Yankees win the bidding at four or five seasons on Japanese import Seiya Suzuki? The key question is can he handle center field regularly? Would they overlook the defense in left or at first base to have Kyle Schwarber’s lefty might?
The Yankees should try to land Swiss Army Knife reliever Collin McHugh, especially if they have to use pitching depth (Green? Michael King?) as part of a deal for a Giants lefty-hitting outfielder such as Steven Duggar or Mike Yastrzemski, Cleveland shortstop Amed Rosario (entering his walk year) or center fielder Myles Straw, or defensive whiz Isiah Kiner-Falefa if the Rangers thought him expendable after the additions of Seager and Semien.
There will be a buffet of options, whenever a lockout concludes. How financially far will Steinbrenner let the Yankees go?