WILD & CRAZY, GUYS
NFL postseason kicks off in the wake of frantic final week
THE MADNESS that occurred during late Sunday afternoon and evening of the NFL’s Week 18 extended from the playing fields in Los Angeles and Las Vegas to the final standings here in the Post’s Bettor’s Guide.
I entered the weekend with a five-game lead in the overall standings, but approaching 7 p.m., it was looking as if the best I could do would be a tie for first place. Then, the Buccaneers pulled away from the Panthers, the Bills got a late covering touchdown against the Jets and the 49ers finished a huge comeback to allow me to clinch the title by a closer-than-itappears four games over Brian Costello.
There was even more drama in the Best Bet race. Howie Kussoy needed a Chargers cover as three-point favorites at the Raiders. But when Daniel Carlson drilled the overtime field goal for Las Vegas, it handed the title to Steve Serby, who finished the season with a highly profitable 61.1 winning percentage.
On to the playoffs!
SATURDAY
BENGALS (-5.5) over Raiders; Over 49: One of my favorite handicapping angles during the regular season involves fading teams with quick turnarounds, particularly after rousing wins. That situation rarely presents itself in the first week of the postseason, but here we are with the Raiders, who played a full overtime Sunday night that ended with them knocking the hated-rival Chargers out of the playoffs. Now they have to play the Saturday afternoon game in Cincinnati, traveling three time zones east to face a Bengals team that rested Joe Burrow and many of its stars last week.
Do I expect guys such as Derek Carr, Hunter Renfrow and Maxx Crosby to say, “Man, I’m just too tired!”? Not at all. Those are tough guys who led the Raiders through a minefield of adversity to a playoff berth. But the situation does help the Bengals, who have a lot of ways to put up points, with Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tyler Boyd and, if healthy, Tee Higgins. The Bengals won 32-23 at Las Vegas in November, and this should be more of the same. Bengals, 34-17 BILLS (-4) over Patriots; Under 44: Is it possible Bill Belichick used up all of his remaining magic when he coached the Patriots to a 14-10 victory over the Bills by calling just three passes on that windswept, North Pole-like night in Orchard Park in early December? Since then, the Patriots are 1-3 SU and ATS, the only success a 50-10 home rout of the Jaguars. Last week, needing a win to have a shot at the AFC East title, the Patriots came up small, losing 33-24 at Miami.
Meanwhile, the Bills are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS since that meeting. Their OT loss at Tampa Bay featured a 17-3, fourth-quarter comeback that turned around Buffalo’s sagging season. On Dec. 26, the Bills went into Foxborough and won, 33-21, as one-point underdogs. I think that game is a better approximation of where these two teams are now. Belichick is still Belichick, but he has the rookie quarterback, Mac Jones, while the other side has the perennial MVP candidate, Josh Allen.
Bills, 24-16
SUNDAY
Eagles (+8.5) over BUCCANEERS; Over 45.5: First, I’d like to pubically thank Nick Sirianni for my favorite cover of the 2021 season. On Oct. 14 in Philadelphia, the Eagles were 6.5-point underdogs to the Bucs and were down 28-14 midway through the fourth quarter. Jalen Hurts scored on a 2-yard run to make it 28-20, and then when every other coach in history would have kicked the PAT, Sirianni went for two and got ’em ... and the cover!
This spread’s a bit lighter than I was hoping for, but I’m expecting this to be somewhat of a street fight. Before resting many players in Week 18, the Eagles had won four games in a row, and had a streak of allowing 13, 18, 17, 10 and 16 points. In addition, a strong interior defensive line is usually the best defense against Tom Brady. Buccaneers, 27-20 49ers (+3) over COWBOYS; Under 50.5: For a team that went 13-4 ATS, the Cowboys have an unusually high number of red flags at home this season. They’ve lost at Jerry World to the Broncos, Raiders and Cardinals, and their overall team stats have been inflated by wins of 56-14 against the decimated WFT and 51-26 against the resting Eagles.
The comeback last week, from a 17-0 deficit against the
Rams, told us everything we need to know about the 49ers, who are 8-3 SU and ATS in their past 11 games. Their offense can score in a lot of different ways — with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and others — and Kyle Shanahan knows how to use them all. As for the total, I’m thinking the 49ers will do enough of their damage on the ground to roll clock, and that Mike McCarthy will mismanage his timeouts and short circuit one scoring opportunity. 49ers, 24-23 Steelers (+12.5) over CHIEFS; Over 46.5: I’m quite aware I’m siding with a pretty bad team, and one that lost to this opponent, in this stadium, by a 36-10 score three weeks ago. I know Ben Roethlisberger is correct when he says, “I would assume, as a group, you understand that we probably aren’t supposed to be here. We probably are not a very good football team. Out of 14 teams I think are in, we’re probably number 14.” But this is the part I like: “We’re double-digit underdogs in the playoffs. So, let’s just go play, have fun and see what happens.”
Indeed, the Steelers are playing with house money, and catching a lot of points from a Chiefs team that is known for winning and not covering. They actually did cover five in a row as favorites late this season, but turned back around in Week 18. This is also the largest spread Kansas City has been asked to cover all season. Finally there’s the trusty Mike Tomlin underdog angle — 46-23-2 ATS by my unofficial running count.
Chiefs, 33-21
MONDAY
RAMS (-4) over Cardinals; Under 49.5: Here’s a matchup of a first-time playoff quarterback, Kyler Murray, against one who is 0-3 in his postseason career, Matthew Stafford. Of course, Stafford now has the Rams surrounding him instead of the Lions. Stafford has been shaky of late, but he has the most unstoppable weapon in this game in Cooper Kupp, and also has been making great use of Tyler Higbee.
Each team won outright on the other team’s field in the regular season, and the Cardinals are actually 8-1 SU on the road in 2021. But that one loss was a bad one, an inexplicable 30-12 rout by the Lions, and recent losses versus the Colts and Seahawks also were unsightly. Rams, 30-17. LOCK OF THE WEEK: 49ers (Locks 10-7 in 2021).
LAST WEEK: 8-8 overall, 1-2 Best Bets.