4 rate hikes seen for ’22: Goldman

The Federal Reserve could hike interest rates more times than expected this year as it aims to curtail the inflation surge, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s current projections call for four rate hikes in 2022, with hikes coming in March, June, September and December. But with inflation at a four-decade high, the central bank could adopt an even more hawkish policy stance, analysts said in a note to clients over the weekend.

“We see a risk that the [Federal Open Markets Committee] will want to take some tightening action at every meeting until that picture changes,” the Goldman Sachs analysts said. “This raises the possibility of a hike, or an earlier balance sheet announcement in May, and of more than four hikes this year.”

The Fed is set to tighten monetary policy in the coming months, with efforts to include rate hikes and trimming of the central bank’s nearly $9 trillion in bond holdings. The last rate hike occurred in December 2019, months before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

The Goldman Sachs economists noted conditions contributing to a high inflation include imbalances between supply and demand, strong wage growth and higher rents.

“We also increasingly see a good chance that the FOMC will want to deliver some tightening action at its May meeting, when the inflation dashboard is likely to remain quite hot,” the Goldman note said. “If so, that could ultimately lead to more than four rate hikes this year.”

The Fed will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday to assess policy.