Your USMNT best bet: Exactly two in the net

The United States enters Thursday’s home 2022 FIFA World Cup Qualifier against El Salvador as the heavy favorite at -400. Unfortunately for bettors, there’s no real value on the underdog at +1150.

When the Americans have trouble with lesser foes, they either offer an athletic threat or a technical one.

In this past summer’s CONCACAF Gold Cup, Haiti and Jamaica did it with athleticism, while Qatar had the technical prowess.

El Salvador can’t really do either. Its best player — Seattle Sounders fullback Alex Roldan — is a good MLS player, but hardly a creative force. The bulk of its squad is based domestically or in lower U.S. leagues.

That said, El Salvadoran manager Hugo Perez understands the Central Americans must hold some possession to have a puncher’s chance.

I expect a 15th consecutive U.S. victory at home in this series, but not a blowout. Specifically, I see a bet on the USMNT to score exactly two goals at +230 odds and an implied 30.3 percent probability as good value.

The Americans have hit that total in seven of their last 10 wins against El Salvador overall. And under manager Gregg Berhalter, this team puts games away by keeping the ball rather than pouring it on. They’ve scored exactly two goals in three of four 2022 cycle home qualifiers. The U.S. is dealing with a few injuries and yellow cards but has some high-end offensive talent on this qualifying roster, including Christian Pulisic, Ricardo Pepi and Weston McKennie.

THE PLAY:

USMNT, Exactly 2 Goals (+230 at BetMGM).

Ian Quillen analyzes soccer for Action Network.