Roll with big Reds machine
Manchester City and Liverpool held serve in their respective midweek matches, which means the league leader continues to hold a one-point advantage over the latter with six matches to play.
I understand Liverpool has been playing a ton of football lately, as this will be its seventh match in 22 days.
However, nobody in the world is in better form than manager Jurgen Klopp’s side. Liverpool has won 13 of its past 14 Premier League matches, boasting a +17.5 expected goal differential (xGDiff ) in those contests.
The Reds have also won 11 consecutive games at Anfield in EPL action, plus they have a stunning +25.9 xGDiff in those tilts. Sunday’s opponent, Everton has been playing better of late, accumulating a +0.3 xGDiff in its past six matches, but this isn’t a great matchup.
The Toffees really struggle when they have to play against teams that can press successfully, as they’re 18th in Offensive PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) this season. As for the Reds, they have forced 375 high turnovers overall, which is 68 more than anybody else in the English top flight, per Opta.
Everton has also conceded the second-most big scoring chances in the EPL, while Liverpool is generating big scoring chances for fun, averaging 2.40 per match. Additionally it looks like Everton is going to be without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Andros Townsend, while Liverpool is fully healthy and able to rotate its squad.
I have the spread projected at Liverpool -2.53 ahead of this match, so I like the value we’re getting on the favorite giving -2 on the alternative line at +100 odds and will make it my top pick.
Cunningham’s call: Liverpool -2 (+100).
Wolverhampton at Burnley
Burnley welcomes Wolverhampton to Turf Moor on Sunday in desperate need of a win to bolster its chances of avoiding relegation from the Premier League.
The Clarets are unbeaten in their two matches since the departure of longtime manager Sean Dyche, picking up a draw at West Ham United and a midweek victory against Southampton last time out.
Meanwhile, the Wolves enter as the fresher team after a two-week break, sitting in eighth with a chance to secure European qualification for next season.
I don’t see any value in picking a winner in the game, but I do see a good price on the total. So, my best bet for this showdown is to back the total flying over two goals at -125 odds via the alternative total.
If your sportsbook offers only totals of 1.5 or 2.5 goals, I would rather play the plus price for there to be at least three goals instead of laying a big number for there to just be two goals.
Over their past six contests, the matches involving the Clarets have averaged 3.05 expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, Wolves games have posted a combined xG average of 2.64 in their past eight in the league.
The main reason for this has been poor defending from both sides. Wolverhampton has conceded 1.83 xG per match to their opponents and only secured two clean sheets during that run of eight games, which is still just slightly better than Burnley’s 1.84 average xG given up over the same span.
With both clubs needing a result for different reasons, I think we’ll see a game that should have at least multiple goals to push. However, I’m expecting more to get us a winning ticket here on this very low total. Pund’s pick: Total Over 2 Goals (-125). Brad Cunningham and Brett Pund handicap the EPL for Action Network.