BET SMART Their number's up... unless it's down
The 2022 NFL Draft begins Thursday in Las Vegas with the first round, and one of the most-common markets bettors can hit is player position Over/Unders.
The name of the game’s pretty simple: If a prospect’s draft position total is 4.5, for example, Under bettors need the player to be selected 1-4. Over bettors are rooting for the player to still be on the board at No. 5.
Stocks have fluctuated like crazy throughout the past few months as the industry reacted to the combine and pro days. Then, of course, there’s always plenty of additional draft buzz on top of that.
The biggest movers at BetMGM, however, are Notre Dame’s Kyle Hamilton, Alabama’s Evan Neal, Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner and Oregon’s Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Kyle Hamilton
Open :5.5— Current: 10.5
The Notre Dame product will make a defensive coordinator happy with his versatility and play-making skills. He’ll likely be picked somewhere in the first round, but for now, Hamilton is trending down.
BetMGM has taken a whopping 73 percent of bets on Hamilton’s Over, which is still priced at a juicy -150.
The 88 percent of money on Hamilton’s Over is also the second-most bet side in the draft position total market at the shop.
Evan Neal
Open :1.5— Current: 4.5
Neal was one of the biggest risers over the winter, moving from 25/1 to +175 for No. 1 pick.
However, he’s another prospect inching backward, with 85 percent of the tickets and 93 percent of the handle on the Over — which is off a full three spots from his opening number.
One thing to note is Neal isn’t the favorite to be the first offensive linemen drafted. That honor goes to N.C. State’s Ikem Ekwonu. So Neal’s draft position may be a little low and that’s why a lot of the action is coming in on the Over.
Sauce Gardner
Open :7.5— Current: 5.5
The hype surrounding Gardner is legit as proven by a three-year career at Cincinnati in which he didn’t allow a single touchdown pass.
He’s the overwhelming chalk to be the first corner off the board. At BetMGM, his Under has rung in the third-most tickets throughout the draft betting cycle.
Gardner’s also been a hot commodity at Caesar’s Sportsbook, where he’s been bet off his opener of 8.5 to 5.5.
“It’s rumored that the Texans are in the market for a cornerback, and he and [Derek] Stingley Jr. are getting a lot of action,” Caesars’ Adam Pullen, the assistant director of trading said.
“If they’re going corner, it’s obviously one of those two, and Gardner is the big favorite among those two. That’s what the information right now says, so the odds have been adjusted accordingly.”
A lot of mock drafts have Gardner going No. 4 to the Jets, which would cash the Under on both the opening and current lines.
Kayvon Thibodeaux
Open :4.5— Current: 5.5 Thibodeaux is an intriguing case study. He’s been mocked to as low as No. 2, but has trickled back at certain points this spring.
He’s responsible for both the largest ticket and handle counts at BetMGM, with 74 percent and 73 percent, respectively, on the Under. Thibodeaux was the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick before the college football season and he’s still -350 to be selected in the top five.