Elex watch: Rising Crime Presages GOP Gov Gains

Last month, Gallup found concern about crime “at its highest level in nearly two decades,” and a Fox poll gave Republicans a 15-point edge on the issue, its biggest ever, notes National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar. This will play out most in governor races in states that have seen violent crime soaring. Illinois “Gov. J.B. Pritzker is already fending off relentless attacks,” while New York’s Gov. Hochul suffers poor approval ratings. “The fact that governor races in the bluest of states are shaping up to be competitive is a sign of the political potency of law-and-order rhetoric . . . Given how eagerly Democrats embraced criminal-justice reforms that turned unpopular,” Republicans “won’t have to do much work to press their advantage.”