Paredes parade
Latch onto red-hot Ray before he cools off
THOUGH fantasy managers hope their star players will perform like star players from the beginning of the season to the end, that is often not the case. In fact, it’s unexpected performances from unheralded players that give squads a necessary boost.
Last season, New Jersey native and St. John’s alum Frank Schwindel hit .344 with 13 homers, 40 RBIs, 42 runs and a 1.006 OPS in 55 games from Aug. 3-Oct. 3. His performance undoubtedly helped fantasy managers at the most crucial point in the season.
That, however, was not a sign for the future. It was merely a player showing the very best version of himself.
Enter Isaac Paredes, who hit .215 over his first 57 big league games with the Tigers before being traded to the Rays. Over his first 30 games with Tampa Bay this season, Paredes went 15-for-83 (.181) with five homers, 12 RBIs, 12 runs and .639 OPS.
Paredes’ season changed on June 21 when he went 3-for-4 with three homers and four RBIs against the Yankees. He also homered in his next two games.
From June 21-Tuesday, Paredes went 19-for-51 (.373) with eight homers, 16 RBIs, 11 runs and 1.331 OPS. In that span, he led the majors in homers and slugging percentage (.902), and was tied for the league lead in RBIs (16). He also ranked 12th in average and sixth in runs scored.
Leading the league in anything over a 13-game stretch means about as much as spring training stats, but it is hard to ignore those numbers — and many fantasy managers certainly didn’t. Paredes was the most added position player in ESPN leagues this week, though he’s on fewer than 50 percent of rosters. That means there are skeptics wondering if the 23-year-old is for real.
Paredes always showed a penchant for making contact while not striking out a ton in the minors, hitting .271 and striking out in just 13.4 percent of his at-bats over six seasons. Though he hasn’t be as selective in the majors, the trend has mostly continued as he is striking out in just 17 percent of his at-bats this season and has an 84 percent contact rate (89.5 percent when in the strike zone).
Among players with a minimum of 140 plate appearances, Paredes has the 24th-lowest swinging-strike rate (6.7 percent, the same as Juan Soto), the 12th-best OPS (.902) and seventhbest slugging percentage (.590).
The power, though, is surprising. Paredes displayed average power in the minors (56 homers in 2,209 plate appearances) and hit two big flies in his first 57 big league games. There was no indication he was capable of hitting 13 in 43 games.
Paredes’ average exit velocity (88.2 mph) is, well, average. As of Friday, it ranked 185th among players with a minimum of 100 Batted Ball Events, according to Statcast. His pull rate (51.8 percent) and hard-hit rate (48.2 percent), though, are way up, which helps explain the increased power — players tend to have the most power while pulling the ball. Any guesses as to where in Paredes’ homers have landed? That’s right, they’ve all landed in left or leftcenter — yup, all of them. In fact, he entered Friday with one — yes, only one — extra-base hit to right field.
Paredes’ HR/FB rate (25.5 percent) is a few percentage points behind sluggers such as Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez, and ranked higher than Mike Trout, Pete Alonso and Shohei Ohtani. Does that sound sustainable? He also is outperforming his expected stats by a wide margin (his expected average is .226 and his expected slugging percentage is .358).
The sudden power outburst put Paredes on the map, and deservingly so. The fact he is eligible at multiple positions in addition to his control in the zone make him an enticing player.
In the end, Roto Rage believes you’re seeing the best version of Paredes. Go along for the ride (or ship him to someone willing to give you a piece that helps your cause), but temper expectations for the future.