Go low for Phils-Cards

The Phillies and Cardinals close out their four-game series on Monday in a matchup between two of MLB’s unluckiest pitchers this season. Philadelphia is projected to start Aaron Nola (5-6, 3.15 ERA), while the Cardinals will turn to Miles Mikolas (5-7, 2.72 ERA).

Nola has been pitching well of late, allowing more than three earned runs just twice in his last eight starts. The Phillies have been a good bet over that span, going 6-2. This will be Nola’s first start of the season against the Cardinals and if history is any indicator, he’s probably not looking forward to it. Current St. Louis hitters have a career .332 average versus Nola in 64 at-bats.

Similar to Nola, Mikolas has pitched well but doesn’t have the record to show for it. The right-hander has given up more than three runs just twice in 17 starts. He faced the Phillies back on July 1 but took a tough loss, despite giving up just two earned runs over 5 ¹/3 innings.

One thing to note is the Cardinals have been dreadful against right-handed pitching lately. Heading into Sunday’s game, St. Louis was batting .213 and averaging fewer than two runs in its last 10 games versus righties.

The Under has been money in this series. After Saturday’s 1-0 Phillies win, the Under was 8-2 in the last 10 meetings. Remarkably, the Cardinals had been shut out in three straight games versus Philadelphia entering Sunday.

Given the way St. Louis’ offense is struggling, I see the trend of lowscoring games continuing on Monday.

THE PLAY: Under 7.5 runs.

Thomas Casale handicaps MLB for Action Network.