MOO-VER & $HAKER

Drought may spark beef shortage, higher prices

Beef prices are poised to surge as a severe drought across the western US forces mass cattle slaughters — and meat distributors say the natural disaster could keep supplies tight for years.

From supermarkets to swanky steakhouses, purveyors warn that consumers could be faced with painful price increases — especially on prime meat — as soon as this month.

“We don’t know where prices could end up, but it’s possible that they go back up to 2020 levels,” said Victor Colello, director of meat for the Morton Williams grocery chain in New York City.

That’s when COVID-19 outbreaks forced shutdowns at meat-processing plants nationwide, tightening supplies even as locked-down consumers clamored for beef. In 2020, the grocer was selling rib meat for about $12 a pound compared with just under $9 currently. Filet mignon had soared to $18 per pound compared with $14 now, according to Colello.

Currently, meat prices are well above pre-pandemic levels in 2019, when rib meat cost $6 per pound and filet mignon was $9 per pound, he added. In June, ground chuck cost $5 per pound — not far off the high of $5.33 it hit in June 2020, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“We haven’t seen any increases yet, but if the drought continues over the next few weeks, our vendors are telling us prices will go up,” said Joe Parisi, president of the Gristedes and D’Agostino supermarkets in New York City.

Restaurant pain

Steakhouses are bracing for the worst. Veteran restaurateur Charlie Palmer, who operates 16 restaurants, including five steakhouses, said he expects to hike prices on prime cuts by about 5% to 10% through the end of the year.

A $56 filet mignon could cost as much as $61 and a $72 rib-eye could jump to $79, he said.

In response, the acclaimed chef is already replacing some of the highend steaks on his menus with “secondary cuts” like top sirloin, flatiron steaks and so-called lifter meat, which comes from thin muscle around the shoulders.

“We are going to see steaks on menus that people have never heard of,” Palmer told The Post.

The problem is that ranchers can’t sustain all the cows and steers in their herds as grasslands have dried up amid the worst drought conditions in a decade. In June, 2,000 cattle in Kansas dropped dead from heat stress.

In response, ranchers have been forced to sell their animals early, thinning the numbers of older cows. By some estimates, US beef-producing cattle herds could be slashed by up to 20% if the ranching industry gets rid of its older, calf-producing cows.

“The implications of fewer cows giving birth to calves are that over the next few years there will be higher beef prices,” said Peter Bozzo, vice president of Chef ’s Warehouse, a food purveyor to highend restaurants.

We are going to see steaks on menus that people have never heard of. — Chef Charlie Palmer