Steelers are not just a bunch of has-Bens
The Post and Action Network will be previewing gambling picks and futures for all 32 NFL teams ahead of the 2022 regular season.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Super Bowl odds: 80/1 2021 record: 9-7-1 (second in AFC North)
Let the AB era begin in Pittsburgh. No, we’re not talking about Antonio Brown — rather, this is the “After Ben” era for head coach Mike Tomlin.
Following the retirement of longtime quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers are expected to suffer a significant dropoff in the AFC. After finishing second in the division last season, Pittsburgh possesses the lowest win total among the four AFC North teams.
Oddsmakers are also projecting the Steelers, who are facing a quarterback competition between new signee Mitchell Trubisky and first-round pick Kenny Pickett, to have their first losing season under Tomlin.
In more positive news, the Steelers return a defense that ranked 14th in total DVOA and eighth in pass DVOA last season, per footballoutsiders.com.
Win total
The heart of the Steelers’ schedule — Weeks 5-12 — is definitely worrisome, but there are winnable games on the slate.
Remember, this is a Pittsburgh squad that was 6-2-1 at home last season. In the previous season, Tomlin’s side was 7-1 when playing in Pittsburgh. Though the Steelers have an added road game this season, their home schedule — Patriots, Jets, Bucs, Saints, Bengals, Ravens, Raiders, Browns — isn’t what I would consider to be extremely intimidating.
There’s also a case to be made that the Steelers could be favored in as many as 6-7 games this season. One of the games against Cleveland will be in Week 3, while quarterback Deshaun Watson is serving his six-game suspension. So, though Pittsburgh is expected to take a step back, it may not be the decline some are predicting.
There’s a definite case for the Steelers to clear this win total. Over the past three seasons, their defense has finished the year 14th or better (third in 2019, first in 2020 and 14th in 2021), per footballoutsiders.com. Given the defense sustained a number of injuries last season, I would certainly expect they’ll be better than 27th against the run in 2022.
Though improvement is needed on that front, it’s worth noting the Steelers’ pass defense has finished eighth or better in each of the past three seasons. Based on those trends, there’s an argument their offense just needs to be average in order to allow their defense to drive game results.
For those reasons, I’m inclined to back the Over on the Steelers’ win total. However, this one is going to be close either way.
Lean: Over 7.5 wins
Season prop
The expectations are clearly set very low for the Steelers this season. Tomlin, however, fits the bill as a potential coach of the year candidate. Per my Action Network colleague Steve Petrella, there are three types of coaches who win this award — those who win 5-7 more games than the previous season, those who elevate a good team into a great one, and those who face adversity and keep their team in the playoffs. Tomlin fits the third criterion. And Though the Steelers are expected to struggle, there’s an argument to be made that Pittsburgh’s ceiling is simultaneously quite high. Assuming the Steelers win fiveplus home games, they may be able to sneak into the playoffs with road wins against the Falcons, Browns (no Watson), Eagles, Dolphins and Panthers. Given the historic strength of Pittsburgh’s pass defense, they are certainly capable of capturing those games against average-at-best quarterbacks. Should that season script come to fruition, Tomlin will likely earn a lot of credit for guiding the Steelers to a 10-win season in their first year without Roethlisberger. At 30/1, I’m willing to take a flier on that happening. Pick: Mike Tomlin — Coach of the Year (30/1, FanDuel) Nicholas Hennion handicaps the NFL for Action Network. Coming Saturday: Commanders