Carson Show will be a hit in Washington
The Post and Action Network will be previewing gambling picks and futures for all 32 NFL teams ahead of the 2022 regular season.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Super Bowl odds: 66/1
2021 record: 7-10 (3rd in NFC East) Ron Rivera is returning for his third season as Washington head coach, and the team made a splash this offseason by acquiring quarterback Carson Wentz from the Colts.
Rivera will hope Wentz is a difference-maker for the Commanders, who were a very up-and-down team last season. After starting 2-2, they lost five of six, won four straight and closed the season 1-4. Early on, Washington will be without edge rusher Chase Young, who is still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in Week 10 last season.
Rivera will also need to improve his team’s pass defense. Last season, Washington ranked 28th in pass DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com, while finishing seventh in rush DVOA. The latter ranking, however, is largely based on games with Young, as Washington struggled against the run without the Ohio State product on the field.
Win total
The win total of 8.5 is heavily juiced at FanDuel to the Under, which is priced at -170 as of this writing. Those bettors interested in the Over can get a juicy +145.
I’m slightly surprised, however, at how confident bookmakers are that the Commanders will fail to clear this win total.
Based on my Action colleague Sean
Koerner’s strengthof-schedule projections, the Commanders enter the 2022-23 season with the third-easiest schedule in the NFL.
Plus, most of their tripwire matchups come at home — Week 7 against Green Bay, Week 9 against Minnesota and Week 18 against Dallas. As for their road schedule, I believe that aside from San Francisco and Dallas, the remainder are winnable games that will feature single-digit spreads (assuming full health).
The addition of Wentz, who ranked 16th among all quarterbacks last year in DVOA, should boost a Washington offense that ranked 21st in team DVOA last season, per footballoutsiders.com. Should that occur, the Commanders will undoubtedly like the looks of a schedule that features eight games against teams that ranked in the bottom half of team defensive DVOA last season.
Additionally, I’m questioning the price here based on the past results for the Commanders. They won seven games in each of Rivera’s first two seasons.
Are they capable of improving by two wins with a competent quarterback and weak schedule?
Absolutely.
Pick: Over 8.5 wins (+145, FanDuel)
Season prop
I expect the Commanders will make Wentz the focal point of their offense. That belief should lead to Wentz going over his touchdown prop of 21.5 for the season.
Beyond that oversimplified theory, there are supporting statistics that further point to Wentz clearing this benchmark. First, Washington has proven mediocre at establishing the run under Rivera. Last season, it ranked 19th in rushing DVOA. In the season prior, it was 14th, per footballoutsiders.com. Additionally, both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic have established themselves as reliable receivers out of the backfield. Last season, of the 57 running backs who received at least 25 passes, both ranked 25th or better in defense-adjusted yards above replacement. Washington makes an active effort to use its backs in a passing game and the ball will be in Wentz’s hands more often than not, especially near the red zone.
Finally, despite all his perceived flaws, Wentz has cleared this number in two of his last three seasons. Based on those trends, back this market up to -125.
Pick: Wentz Over 21.5 passing TDs (-112, FanDuel)
Nicholas Hennion handicaps the NFL for Action Network. Coming Sunday: Saints