Will Wilson help Denver Russell up enough W’s?
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DENVER BRONCOS
Super Bowl odds: 16/1
2021 record: 7-10 (4th in AFC West) It’s taken 15 different quarterbacks since Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, but the Broncos finally have a franchise signal-caller in Russell Wilson. On March 8, Wilson agreed to waive his no-trade clause, and the news reverberated across the league.
A quarterback of Wilson’s quality certainly doesn’t come cheap, as Denver had to part ways with TE Noah Fant (61.6 PFF grade), DL Shelby Harris (61.3 PFF grade), QB Drew Lock (60.0 PFF grade), two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a fifth-round pick.
In recent years, we’ve seen that teams are more willing to give up draft picks if they can attain a proven commodity. The Rams executed this strategy perfectly when they pursued Matthew Stafford, who delivered with a Super Bowl win.
Broncos fans can only hope Wilson can produce a similar result this season. If so, it will be well worth everything the team gave up to bring Wilson to Denver.
Win total
This win total is drawing some interest because, in mid-July, I played Denver to win Under 10.5 games. Now, the win total is down to 9.5 with the Over juiced to -140. A difference in one game could be paramount depending on which side you’re on in terms of a win total.
My projections of the AFC
West are that I expect it will be a challenge for any team to create much separation within the division. The Chiefs are still kings of the hill until proven otherwise, so it’s hard to slot any team above them.
I think this number is right where it should be because if we expect Wilson will make Denver an above .500 team, we’re probably looking at nine to 10 wins.
And while the thought of middling the win total did cross my mind, I’m ultimately content with my initial play at Under 10.5.
However, I do think this Broncos team has more upside than downside. As a result, I’m more inclined to bet the Under at 10.5 than 9.5. At the current number, it’s just a lean. Let’s be honest, a lot of these AFC West games will come down to the fourth quarter and having Wilson under center is a big edge for Denver given his past success late in games.
The bottom line is this win total is one of the tightest on the board with the Broncos likely winning nine or 10 games this season.
Lean: Under 9.5 wins
Season prop
North Carolina product Javonte Williams projects to be ahead of Melvin Gordon as the Broncos’ starting running back on the depth chart.
Both running backs give the Broncos tremendous balance as each had identical rushing attempts (203) for the season. Williams (903 rushing yards) did play one more game than Gordon but still finished with 15 fewer rushing yards. But where the 22-year-old Williams did have the edge over the veteran was in targets out of the backfield. The 29year-old Gordon drew 38 targets resulting in 213 yards, while Williams finished with 53 targets for 316 receiving yards. Williams’ longest reception was for 42 yards, and he finished with three touchdowns compared to Gordon’s two touchdowns and longest reception of 30 yards. Williams also picked up three more first downs than Gordon, so I’m interested in him getting the bulk of opportunities as an outlet in thirddown situations.
In 2020 when Wilson played the full season, he used his running back Chris Carson quite a bit in the passing game. Carson played only 12 games but had 287 yards on 46 targets.
Those numbers should bode well for Williams if he and Wilson can develop some rapport. As a result, I think the Over is worth a look for Willams’ rushing/receiving yardage prop, especially when you factor in his contributions as a pass catcher this season.
Pick: Javonte Williams Over 1,199.5 rushing and receiving yards (FanDuel) Michael Arinze handicaps the NFL for Action Network. Coming Tuesday: Cowboys