Mahomes & Kelce won't go meek minus Tyreek

The Post and Action Network will be previewing gambling picks and futures for all 32 NFL teams ahead of the 2022 regular season.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Super Bowl odds: 10/1 2021 record: 12-5 (first in AFC West) When Patrick Mahomes burst on the scene in 2018, the Chiefs seemed destined to be the next dynasty to follow the Patriots.

Yet, though the Chiefs have had success, it doesn’t nearly match what we’ve seen with the Patriots when they were at their peak. Kansas City does deserve credit for reaching the AFC title game in each of the past four years. However, the Chiefs have only one Super Bowl to show for their efforts.

Though there’s no question the Chiefs raised the bar, I think it’s fair to say the teams around the league have done well to narrow the gap. Kansas City could face it’s biggest challenge this season, as they’ll be without one of the NFL’s most dynamic receivers, Tyreek Hill.

We’ll highlight any other critical changes to the roster as we create a roadmap on how to attack them in the futures market.

Win total

Chiefs coach Andy Reid does as good a job as anyone in setting his teams up for the regular season. According to our Action Labs database, since becoming Kansas City’s head coach in 2013, the Chiefs have the best record (27-9) over the season’s first four games.

I think the reason for his success is that he’s not shy about playing his star players during the preseason. The Chiefs have a lot at stake for this upcoming campaign, given that they’ll be without four of their top six pass catchers from last season.

As a result, it was of the utmost importance for Mahomes and his receiving corps to develop some chemistry. Mahomes played in the first two preseason games and already looks to be in midseason form.

Though I know the AFC West is loaded, if there’s one team that deserves the benefit of the doubt to still go over their win total, I think it has to be the Chiefs. There should be a lot of close games decided in the fourth quarter between AFC West teams this year and Kansas City has something the other three don’t: Mahomes.

It’s worth noting that In the Mahomes-Reid era, the Chiefs have yet to finish with fewer than 12 wins in the regular season. I expect that trend to continue in 2022.

Pick: Over 10.5 wins

Player prop

After receiving just 25 fewer targets than Hill (159), one can only imagine how many tight end Travis Kelce will now get with the diminutive wide receiver off to Miami.

Kelce averaged 134 targets over the past six seasons, and he finished with at least 1,036 receiving yards in each of them. Furthermore, he’s averaging 15.75 games per season over his eight-year career, so he’s been incredibly durable.

At 6-foot-5 and 250 pounds, the former Cincinnati product is a physical specimen in peak athletic conditioning. When you watch Kelce play, he rarely takes a bad hit because, unlike another formidable tight end in Rob Gronkowski, he has enough speed to evade would-be tacklers.

Like Cooper Kupp and the Rams, a defense can know who’s getting the football sometimes, and still can’t stop it. Thus, I don’t see any reason we should expect Kelce’s production to decline in 2022.

I love this spot with taking the Over for his receiving yards.

Pick: Kelce Over 1,024.5 regular-season receiving yards (BetMGM)