Take Canelo by decision over aging ghost of GGG

Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin will fight for a third time on Saturday, and if the past is any indicator, it should be an entertaining bout in Las Vegas. The first two bouts between the two were hotly debated. The initial fight finished in a draw and Alvarez won the second meeting by majority decision.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting the third fight to be quite as close. Alvarez opened as a -410 favorite with the underdog Golovkin set at +290. As of Friday, Alvarez had moved to -450 with GGG a +350 ’dog at BetMGM.

It’s a little surprising to see Alvarez as such a big favorite considering he closed around a +150 underdog in each of the first two fights. One reason why the odds are heavy toward Alvarez this time around is because Golovkin is now 40 years old. While many people, including myself, believe Golovkin won both prior fights against Alvarez, there is a sense that his best days are behind him.

Alvarez is coming off just the second loss of his career against unbeaten light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol. He struggled against the bigger Bivol, but at 168 pounds, Alvarez is still one of the biggest punchers in the super middleweight division. As good as Golovkin is, he can’t frustrate Alvarez the same way Bivol did by pumping that jab all night and keeping his distance.

Since the controversial loss to Alvarez in 2018, Golovkin is 4-0 with three knockouts against inferior competition. It’s hard to know how much an aging Golovkin has left for a third meeting versus an elite fighter such as Alvarez. He has fought just once in the last two years and that was a glorified sparring session against overmatched Ryota Murata.

Golovkin was the aggressor in the first meeting and controlled the fight in my opinion. Of the two fights, that’s the one most believe Golovkin won. However, he wasn’t given the decision on any of the three scorecards. Let’s be realistic: If Golovkin couldn’t earn a decision over Alvarez after that performance, he’s not likely to do it on Saturday night at 40.

Alvarez was much more aggressive in the second meeting, and while I gave the decision to Golovkin, that one really could have gone either way. Golovkin connected on more punches (234-202), but Alvarez had the edge in power shots (143-116). Look for Alvarez to again land the bigger punches this time around.

It’s hard not to like Golovkin at +350, especially when you factor in that he closed around a -170 favorite for the previous two fights. The problem is it’s nearly impossible to earn a decision over Alvarez. Bivol dominated most of the bout against Alvarez, but still needed to win the final round to avoid a draw, taking the decision 115-113 on all three scorecards.

I’m also concerned that Golovkin is looking for one last big payday late in his career, while Alvarez wants to avenge just the second loss of his career.

I think the best way to attack this fight is to take Alvarez to win by decision +110 and for the fight to go the full 12 rounds at -150. Both of these fighters have excellent chins. In a combined 105 fights, neither boxer has ever been in serious danger of getting knocked out.

I think Alvarez will control this fight, but Golovkin will still have enough left in the take to

get it to the scorecards. While Golovkin has been my favorite fighter to watch over the last 15 years, I see this being the most lopsided of the three bouts in Alvarez’s favor.

Thomas Casale analyzes boxing for Action Network.