‘MNF’ doubleheader ripe for picking props
We’ve got two games scheduled for Monday night, which means twice as many props to choose from on the betting menu. Here are three of our favorite props at BetMGM across both contests:
Josh Allen under 41.5 rushing yards (-115)
Allen dazzled in the first game of the NFL season with his arm and his leg, and he should be able to post gaudy passing numbers against this Titans pass defense that will be without top cornerback Kristian Fulton (hamstring). But I wouldn’t expect a prolific rushing effort, too.
Allen finished with nine carries in last year’s matchup with Tennessee — tied for his fifth-most all season — but his 26 rushing yards ranked fifthfewest across 17 starts. In fact, in four career meetings with the Titans, he’s never ran for more than 27 yards in a game and is averaging just 3.3 yards per tote in those four contests.
Last season, five of Allen’s six highest rushing totals came in games when he finished with zero sacks. That almost certainly won’t be the case against this disruptive front seven for Tennessee, which should be able to get to Allen and keep in check as a rusher, especially relative to this high total.
Derrick Henry over
20.5 rushing attempts (-115)
This is a downright disrespectful number for Henry, who’s rushed it at least 21 times in 20 of his last 27 games, including 21 carries in last week’s loss to the Giants. That also doesn’t include a 20-rush effort in last year’s win over the Bills, when he ran roughshod for 143 yards and three touchdowns.
Henry is the fulcrum of the Titans’ offense game plan, especially with star receiver A.J. Brown elsewhere, and it hardly matters the matchup. In eight games in 2021, Henry averaged nearly as many carries in losses (25) as in wins (28.2), and he posted a healthy workload in games decided by seven or fewer points (29) as well as those decided by eight or more (25.8).
So don’t be scared off from this prop even if you think the Bills get out to an early lead. Henry has proven to be the type of back that the Titans will ride regardless of the circumstances, and this total simply isn’t high enough to lay off here.
A.J. Brown over 5.5 receptions (-110)
This prop was dealing at plus-money on the over early this past week, but the market has finally come around on what feels like a ridiculously low number for Jalen Hurts’ favorite new weapon.
The star receiver made a splash in his Eagles debut last week, finishing with a whopping 10 catches on 13 targets — both of which were the second-most in his career. His 155 yards were also tied for the most in his career, and his 40.6 percent target share was among the highest he’s ever seen in a one-game sample. Clearly, Hurts is enjoying his newest weapon, as over half of his completions in Week 1 were to the Pro Bowl wideout. Buffalo’s secondary is talented but still thin without top corner Tre’Davious White (knee), and Brown is no stranger to posting big numbers against this group after catching a team-high seven passes for the Titans in last year’s matchup. Even if the Bills try to blanket Brown on Monday, I’d expect the 6-foot-1 star to muscle his way to a half-dozen catches through four quarters.