MVP debate is no debate at all
MILWAUKEE — This MVP debate is getting a little wacky. It may be the most heated argument ever, at least among arguments that ended weeks ago. Or should have.
Angels interim manager Phil Nevin says he loves Aaron Judge like a son but picks Shohei Ohtani for MVP. Hopefully, Judge’s father has a clearer mind and stronger family values.
Judge hit two more home runs Sunday — one an opposite-field, upper-deck job, the other up near Bernie’s Chalet in left — and now has 59 homers in a season like no one’s ever had before and is almost sure to break Roger Maris’ American League record of 61 homers.
But I really can’t blame Nevin. Considering the Angels are worse under him than Joe Maddon, it wouldn’t be wise from a job-security standpoint to pick the other guy. A son, even an imagined one, can’t get revenge. But an employer certainly can.
The MVP discussion is getting crazy on the internet. I was called everything from a meanie to a typical New Yorker (that may be the same thing, not sure) after my column Friday correctly stating there’s West Coast bias in the voting. Let me go over this once more. If there’s East Coast bias, how to explain the Angels winning four MVP awards in a decade without winning a playoff game? The Yankees are almost the opposite: five rings since 1996, two MVP awards.
Almost no one not currently employed by the Angels or living in Orange County, Calif. actually believes someone other than Judge could be MVP. Roger Lodge, the former “Blind Date” guy who has a nice Angels-centric talk show in the OC, tweeted Ohtani should win. And now comes Nevin, the former Yankees coach who’d become former Angels manager if he took up the case for Judge. There are a few others spouting strange logic.
The odds boards now put Judge at 1-200 to win. But from an odds standpoint, this is like betting on Secretariat in a maiden claiming race. Here’s one time I’d risk a lot for a little.
Aaron Boone, as unbiased as Nevin, called Judge’s year “a season for the ages.” But Boone doesn’t need to stump for Judge. One, Boone’s job isn’t in jeopardy (sorry to the blood-thirsty Yankees fans among you). And two, it’s obvious Judge will win.
“I understand there’s going to be a storyline over the next couple weeks who deserves MVP,” Anthony Rizzo said, “This hasn’t been done in this era, someone chasing 61 [homers] clean like this and really no question marks about what’s going on in the game. It’s really impressive.
“I know there’s a debate about Ohtani. But it’s [Judge’s] season. It’s his special season.”
Judge’s season, already not to be believed, gets better by the day. He smoked No. 58 off Brewers starter Jason Alexander (his real name, not that there’s anything wrong with it) and No. 59 off reliever Luis Perdomo, putting Babe Ruth’s biggest season within a swing of striking distance, assuming pitchers dare to keep pitching to him. The awards, the chase, “it’s all noise,” to Judge. “If it happens at home, that’ll be great. But we will talk about it when it happens.”
Umpire Gabe Morales threw out a specially marked ball for history before Judge’s final atbat — Judge is so focused he said he didn’t even notice — but alas, he only lined a double to left, giving him a four-hit day and raising his average to .316, one point behind AL leader Luis Arraez for the batting title and Triple Crown. Thanks to Judge, the first-place Yankees’ hung on to a series-salvaging 12-8 win Sunday in a matchup of the journeyman Alexander versus. ace Gerrit Cole, who now leads the AL with 29 homers allowed. (Side note: I’d like to see the Yankees try to make the fancy argument Judge is worth less than Cole, who got $324 million.)
In terms of value in 2022, there’s no way to say anyone affected the race like Judge, leading MLB in runs, RBIs, onebase percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and total bases and almost singlehandedly propping the Yankees up while everyone around him is aching, ailing or hoping to return soon. The Yankees are six games under since the break while Judge is putting together a fantasy half.
He was MVP front-runner in the first half when he had a .983 OPS. Since the break, it’s higher than 1.300, which truly is unreal. While he hasn’t tried pitching, his Fangraphs WAR is about to hit 10 off this game, which would put him with Mike Trout and Mookie Betts as the only active players to reach that height.
Ohtani is incredible and obviously doing two things exceptionally well but his WAR is about 10 percent lower than Judge’s. Ohtani also hasn’t affected the standings as the Angels have been out of it since June. So to recap: Ohtani is less good this year, and much less valuable.
No bias here. But if Judge gets fewer than 28 votes — all but the presumed two coming out of Angels central — something is wrong.