Phillies are real deal with Nola & Wheeler
The 2022 World Series will get underway on Friday with Game 1 between the Phillies and Astros at Minute Maid Park. Caesars has installed the Astros as the -190 favorites to win the Fall Classic, with the Phillies coming back as +170 underdogs.
The Astros’ path to this showdown with the Phillies was pretty straightforward. Houston entered April as the favorite to win the American League pennant, put together a 106-win season, and then went 7-0 through the ALDS and ALCS to get here.
The Phillies, on the other hand, were always outsiders. Philadelphia was priced as a fringe contender at 25/1 before the season, drifted to the 50/1 range after a sluggish start, and then checked into the Wild-Card Series as one of the biggest long shots in the postseason field at 30/1. The Phillies were underdogs in every series so far and are considerable pooches against the Astros.
But there’s a reason why the Phillies have had so much success in the postseason. While not deep enough to be a dominant regular-season team over 162 games, the Phillies have the right ingredients to be an absolute chore in a playoff format, and it all starts with the front end of their pitching staff.
Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler are a dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation and give Philadelphia every chance to win when they have the ball, no matter the opponent. Should this series go seven games, you can expect Nola to make three starts and Wheeler to make two, plus provide some bullpen help in Game 7. That’s a large percentage of the series covered by two of the best starting pitchers in baseball right now. With Nola and Wheeler in tow, the Phillies automatically become interesting at this price. Bettors should feel pretty confident that Philadelphia can earn a split through the first two games in Houston, which completely changes the outlook in a best-of-7. And while Houston gets the edge on offense, the gap between these two lineups probably isn’t as wide as you’d think. Houston finished the season ranked seventh in wOBA (.324), sixth in wRC+ (112) and seventh in OPS (.743), but the Phillies were right behind them. Philadelphia posted the eighth-best wOBA (.322), 10thbest wRC+ (106) and eighth-best OPS (.739) during the regular season. Additionally, the Phillies are one of a few lineups that boast just as many game-wreckers as the Astros. Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins can all change a series with one swing of the bat, plus they have some highceiling depth with Nick Castellanos and Alec Bohm. The Astros are deserving of their status as favorites to win the World Series. Houston has been steadily progressing toward this moment for the entire season and has looked like world-beaters during the postseason so far. But the Phillies tick the right boxes for an underdog bet in a best-of-7 series. Philadelphia’s starting pitching automatically levels the playing field and if their lineup can stay hot, they are more than worth a look at this number. Take the Phillies at +170 to win the championship.