JET WITH THE PROGRAM
Time to believe in 5-2 Gang Green — especially vs. struggling Patriots
JOE Douglas already has received plaudits for vastly increasing the Jets’ talent level this season. Yet, his best move may have been the one he made Tuesday when he sent a conditional low-round draft pick to the Jaguars in exchange for James Robinson, two days after his team lost Breece Hall and Alijah Vera-Tucker to season-ending injuries in its 16-9 win in Denver.
We’ll see how much Robinson ends up helping, but the point is Douglas’ timing was perfect. Despite the Jets’ four-game winning streak and 5-2 record, all of Jets Nation was depressed over the devastating diagnoses for Hall and Vera-Tucker, two excellent young players who already have developed into cornerstones of this organizational climb. Players and fans alike needed a lift, and Douglas gave it to them.
So now this week is not about woe-is-them, but rather about how Robert Saleh and the Jets can collect a big receipt for last year’s merciless 54-13 drubbing in Foxborough. More than that, they can start to redeem more than two decades worth of the little chits on behalf of all Jets players, coaches and fans.
While people around the country are starting to take notice, the Jets are still not respected much in the marketplace. They are a 5-2 team that’s an underdog at home against a 3-4 team, one that’s coming in on a short week after a 33-14 loss to the Bears on Monday night. In fact, Chicago was a few yards away from scoring 40 with a squad that had been averaging 15.5 points per game, but chose to kneel instead.
This will be a tough hill for the Jets to get over, but I think a lot of things are setting up well. The Jets should be able to pressure Mac Jones behind a New England offensive line that had three starters questionable at midweek. Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed can lock down the top two receivers, allowing guys like Quincy Williams and Kwon Alexander to swarm to the ball on Jones’ short passes.
Zach Wilson has not produced many stats but he hasn’t given anything away, either, and he might not need to generate all that many points here to give the Jets their fifth win in a row.
The pick: Jets +2.5.
Giants (+3) over SEAHAWKS:
Speaking of injuries, congrats to Giants guard Nick Gates for making it back from a gruesome broken leg that required seven surgeries to repair. Quite an inspiration.
Seattle has some medical issues to deal with this week as both of its top receivers, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, could be out. Kenneth Walker III is averaging 6.1 yards per carry but Wink Martindale should have answers for Geno Smith. Though it’s a tough emotional spot for the Giants in a cross-country game and the second half of a road back-to-back, I don’t see Brian Daboll allowing the intensity to wane.
Broncos (+2.5) over Jaguars (in London): While each team has lost four in a row, Denver seems to be in the more desperate situation as Nathaniel Hackett’s job may already be on the line. Russell Wilson should be back (for better or worse), and Denver ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed and third in points allowed.
EAGLES (-10.5) over Steelers: Are the Steelers the team that has covered as road underdogs at Cincinnati and Miami, or the one that lost 38-3 in Buffalo? Big number but the Eagles have covered in all three home wins and should be spry off the bye.
Raiders (-1) over SAINTS: Each team has just two wins and a loaded injury report. Giving the Raiders a small edge because they are coming off a bye, which allowed them some time to heal up and reset their program for the stretch run.
Bears (+9.5) over COWBOYS: I’ll admit to some recency bias as the Bears did grow on me with their smackdown of the Patriots. I’ve called their offense prehistoric, but Justin Fields is starting to produce some points. With their strong defense, I’m happy to take Chicago with big points. Panthers (+4) over FALCONS: The Panthers players didn’t get the message that the season was over with the firing of Matt Ruhle and trade of Christian McCaffrey, and they pasted the Buccaneers, 21-3. Two of the Falcons’ three wins are by less than this margin. Dolphins (-3.5) over LIONS: After playing four close games to start the season, the Lions have now lost 29-0 at New England and 24-6 at Dallas on either side of their bye. I don’t think it’s too much to ask the Dolphins to grind out a 7- to 10-point win at Ford Field. Cardinals (+3.5) over VIKINGS: Interesting that this will be the Vikings’ fifth home game against two road games, so I’m not sure we know exactly how good their 5-1 record really is. Their last three home wins were by four, three and seven, so I’m willing to take a few points to find out. TEXANS (+2.5) over Titans: Line is low because of Ryan Tannehill’s ankle injury. If Malik Willis has to play, Mike Vrabel will go total smashmouth, and in that type of game, even a small spread on the underdog could prove valuable. Texans rookie RB Dameon Pierce will get his chance to upstage Derrick Henry. Commanders (+3) over COLTS: This line has steamed from Colts -6 to this number only in part because Frank Reich made the switch from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger. Washington scored 21 with Taylor Heinicke last week after putting up 8, 10, 17, 12 in the previous four games with Carson Wentz.
49ers (-1.5) over RAMS: The 49ers already have a 24-9 win over the Rams in the bank and now have a little time to try to figure out how to incorporate McCaffrey into the offense without having to defend against the likes of Patrick Mahomes.
Packers (+11.5) over BILLS: It’s not as if I’m not enjoying the struggles of the insufferable postgame bloviator Aaron Rodgers, but I’m not to the point where I’d lay double digits against them, even with the explosive Bills.
MONDAY
Bengals (-3) over BROWNS: The Bengals are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as they head to the lake to face a Cleveland team that has lost four in a row and seems to be biding its time until Deshaun Watson becomes eligible to take the field.
BEST BETS: Commanders, Texans, Packers.
LOCK OF THE WEEK: Commanders (Locks 4-3 in 2022).
LAST WEEK: 9-5 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.
THURSDAY: Ravens (W).