Odds don’t yet match Nets’ ominous outlook
After one of the most tumultuous offseasons in NBA history, the Nets needed a scapegoat following an abysmal 2-5 start to the year. They found one in Steve Nash.
The former head coach parted ways with the organization on Tuesday just seven games into his third season at the helm — the earliest a coach had been dismissed during a season since Tyronn Lue got the unceremonious pink slip six games into the Cavaliers’ campaign in 2018-19. While that team felt bound for the lottery before the season even began, it’s much rarer to see a team with title aspirations hit the panic button so early in the season.
And, as you might expect, it’s often a harbinger of even more dysfunction in the interim.
Since 2000, we 76 teams replaced their coach during the season prior to Nash’s departure this week. Only 18 of those 76 teams eventually made the postseason (23.7 percent), and a measly five of them advanced beyond the first round. That’s an ominous sign for the Nets, who are still dealing at an overwhelming -420 to make the playoffs and 13/1 to win it all at FanDuel.
Those odds fly in the face of what we’ve seen from past teams in this spot — including this very franchise. Nash’s firing Tuesday marked the sixth time in the last 20 years the Nets have made an in-season coaching change, tied for the most by any organization over that span. Two of the previous five clubs missed the playoffs; one advanced beyond the first round; and four of five fell below their preseason win total.
That’s much more consistent with the results from prior in-season coaching changes this century. A staggering 63 of 76 teams to make such a move cashed the Under on their preseason total, falling short by an average of 8.7 wins. Look no further than the 2021-22 Kings, who canned Luke Walton after 17 games and eventually fell 6.5 games shy of their already low total — joining 10 of the previous 11 teams to fire their coach and ultimately end up short of preseason expectation. Of course, there’s a bit of self-fulfilling logic at work: teams that fire their coach tend to be doing poorly already, which ultimately makes a successful season less likely. To that effect, when looking only at teams with preseason title odds shorter than 10/1, five of seven eventually made the playoffs and two of them (2005-06 Heat, 2015-16 Cavaliers) even hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy that season. While that seemingly bodes well for the Nets, who entered the season as 7/1 contenders, five of those seven teams had a preseason win total higher than their opening mark of 50.5 — with four boasting a total north of 55. When you compare the Nets path to that of their contemporaries, the road ahead feels much more dire. Of the 20 teams to fire their coach fewer than 20 games into the season, 17 missed the playoffs and 19 fell short of their preseason win total. Among those with a win percentage below 30 percent at the time of the switch, 23 of 24 missed the postseason with a 21-3 record to the Under. Even the last 10 seasons’ worth of coaching changes paint a grim picture: 16 of 21 missed the playoffs, and only two of them advanced beyond the first round. There’s a running theme here: Firing a coach is rarely the solution, and it’s often akin to preemptively waving the white flag. In fact, those 76 teams actually boasted a better winning percentage before making a move (39.9 percent) than after (39.4 percent), and only 13 of them met their expected win total. That isn’t to say these Nets can’t turn their season around. Not every sputtering squad has one of the best players in league history leading the charge, after all. But bettors should be wary of any team dysfunctional enough to make such a drastic move this early in the season, and more than two decades’ worth of data suggests the final chapter for this group has already been written.