Cincinnati won't cruise past Navy
The college football slate Saturday is an absolute doozy, headlined by No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 2 Tennessee at Samford Stadium in Athens, Ga. But while most of the country will have its eyes fixed on the Bulldogs and Volunteers in the late afternoon, ugly underdog connoisseurs like myself will be focused on a very different game taking place at Nippert Stadium.
After making it to the College Football Playoff last season, Cincinnati has taken an expected step back in 2022. The Bearcats are still a respectable 6-2 and are one of the favorites to win the AAC Championship, but they can’t afford another slip up after losing to Central Florida last week. That result knocked the Bearcats out of the Top 25.
Cincinnati is expected to bounce back this week — the Bearcats are 18.5-point favorites over Navy — but there are reasons to believe the Midshipmen can keep this game tight.
Navy bumped its record to 3-5 with an overtime win over Temple last week, but the Midshipmen were dealt a significant blow when they lost starting quarterback Tai Lavatai to a season-ending injury.
The silver lining here is that the dropoff from Lavatai to Xavier Arline shouldn’t be too dramatic given Navy’s triple-option offensive scheme.
There is no secret to Navy’s offensive game plan. The Midshipmen want to trudge down the field via the triple-option. Navy has the third-highest rush rate in the country and ranks 104th in seconds per play. This is a slow, methodical offense.
On paper, Cincinnati’s defense should match up well with Navy. The Bearcats rank 15th in yards per rush allowed, 22nd in rushing success rate and 35th in defensive line yards. Cincinnati is the 22nd-best tackling defense in the country, per Pro Football Focus.
While you can give Cincinnati’s defense the edge as the best unit in the matchup, the Navy defense deserves plenty of respect, too. The Midshipmen rank 23rd in rushing success rate, third in defensive line yards and boast the 15th-best havoc rating. The Midshipmen may struggle stopping the pass, but Cincinnati’s aerial attack ranks 59th in success rate and the Bearcats are 79th in the country at finishing drives.
The numbers already make Navy look like an enticing underdog at this price, but what’s most appealing is the stylistic matchup. It is always a good idea to consider a bet on service academies when they’re catching more than two touchdowns.
Since Navy runs a triple-option and runs the ball more than almost any other team in the country, you know the clock will be moving. That will limit possessions and shorten the game, which is always a good thing for underdogs catching points. The numbers back up that theory: Since 2005, the three service academies have gone 43-26-1 (61.4 percent) as underdogs of at least 14 points (per Action Network).
And one more feather in Navy’s cap as an ugly underdog is the total. The Over/ Under is set at 44 points currently and the Under has already taken money to get it there, so the market is telling us that this could be a rock fight, which, once again, should suit the Midshipmen.
Sail with Navy +18.5.