Vikes’ 8-1 start likely fueled by lots of luck
Over the first half of this NFL season, the Vikings felt like a sleeping giant. They owned the second-best record through nine weeks behind a run of dramatic finishes that always broke in their favor, yet the betting market was relatively dismissive of their hot start.
Then came Week 10, and one result — Minnesota 33, Buffalo 30 — changed the narrative entirely.
The “Game of the Year,” as it’s come to be known across every major outlet, served as vindication for the team few had taken seriously. The Vikings were instantly a trendy pick atop NFL power rankings, ahead of the title-favorite Bills and even ahead of an Eagles team that trounced Minnesota in prime time earlier this year.
Oddsmakers swiftly slashed the Vikings’ title price to 11/1 at most books — nearly half their price from just one week before. That still slots the NFL’s winningest group behind four other teams in the Super Bowl market.
So, that begs the question: Is this team worth betting to win it all?
There’s plenty to like about Minnesota beyond its 8-1 record. Justin Jefferson looks to be the best offensive player in football, as evidenced by his superhuman catch on fourth down to key Sunday’s epic 17-point comeback. His team boasts the league’s secondbest turnover margin (+8) and created four takeaways last week, including two red-zone interceptions of MVP contender Josh Allen.
Yet further scrutiny of the Vikings’ hot start reveals cracks in the foundation of a title hopeful.
Of those eight wins, three have come against backup quarterbacks — which doesn’t include last week’s win against a hobbled Allen (elbow), who was a game-time decision. Even with that incredible fortune, Minnesota still ranks just eighth in point differential (+35), tied with the 49ers (5-4) and just behind the Patriots (5-4).
Advanced metrics paint a much less flattering picture. Even after beating the best team in the league, the Vikings rank 17th in DVOA with below-average marks on offense (17th), defense (19th), and special teams (25th). For context: all but one of the Super Bowl champions since 1981 have ranked in the top 12 in overall DVOA, with more ranked first (14) than outside the top five (11). Perhaps the biggest indictment of this team is net yards per play, a common metric used by handicappers to filter out volatile factors such as turnovers, penalties, and special teams. Surprise, surprise: Minnesota ranks 23rd in net yards per play (-0.46) behind the likes of the Raiders, Bears, and Panthers — all of whom seem more likely to earn the No. 1 pick than make the playoffs. The more you scratch at the Vikings’ shiny veneer, the more luck you’ll find hidden under the surface. They’ve won seven straight games by eight or fewer points, tied for the longest streak of one-score wins in NFL history, and five of those wins came after trailing in the fourth quarter. Look no further than last week. Minnesota had a 6 percent chance to win before Jefferson’s miracle grab on fourth-and-18, the longest fourth-down conversion by any team this season. Things were even more dire before a fortuitous goal-line fumble recovery — the first go-ahead defensive touchdown while trailing in the final minute since the Eagles’ Miracle at the Meadowlands in 1978. Even the Vikings’ elite record itself doesn’t guarantee postseason success. Over the last 15 seasons, 29 teams have started 8-1 or better through their first nine games. While all 29 made the playoffs, more lost in the wild-card round (6) than actually won it all (3) with just one Super Bowl winner among the last 14 such teams. Clearly, books are still skeptical of the Vikings, who are dealing as home underdogs to the Cowboys this week despite dealing at a shorter title price. If you’re sold on this group, this may be the best price you get for a while after last week’s much-ballyhooed win. But there’s enough reason for concern to stay away from the hottest team in football.