USA victory probably won’t follow script
If you asked USMNT supporters before the tournament if they’d sign up for a win-or-go-home match against Iran to get to the Round of 16 of the World Cup, most would likely say yes. The odds back up that notion, as the United States is a +100 favorite in three-way betting at BetMGM to beat Iran on Tuesday, so it’s a coin flip as to whether or not the Yanks go marching on.
That may sound as if it underrates the USA’s talent advantage over Iran — which is significant — but you have to keep in mind that the Lions of Persia only need a draw from this match to advance and that plays right into the strengths of this team.
Although they haven’t shown it yet this tournament, Iran was pasted by England in their first match and then dominated Wales in their second despite winning, the Lions of Persia are experts at setting up defensively and grinding out results.
Iran’s ability to defend for its lives in two low blocks is a reflection of its manager, Carlos Queiroz. A journeyman coach who has spent time on the sidelines at Real Madrid, the Portuguese national team and with the NY/NJ MetroStars, Queiroz has seemingly found a home with the Iranian National Team, whom he managed from 2011 to 2019 and then again starting in September of this year.
Ask anybody who is familiar with Queiroz and they’ll tell you that he was built for a situation like this. Queiroz will never be classified as a forward thinker, but it’s not as if his defensive style has not yielded positive results for Iran. He makes the most of what he’s got and he’ll be comfortable setting his team up in a situation where it can get through to the Round of 16 with a draw.
While the USMNT will likely have the ball for the majority of this match, that will almost be by design from Iran. You can expect the Lions of Persia to sit deep in a 4-5-1 and look to hit the Yanks on the counterattack with the talismanic duo of Mehdi Taremi and Sardar Azmoun. The talent discrepancy between these teams does favor the USMNT by a wide margin, but Taremi and Azmoun are both terrific players who likely would challenge for a spot in the USA starting XI. They will be trouble for the Yanks. And even though the expectation is for Iran to defend deep, that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to be aggressively looking for chances to spring counters. A 1-0 lead for the Lions of Persia and things would get incredibly difficult for the USMNT, who would have no choice but to send everyone forward and take risk after risk.
On the other hand, a 1-0 lead for the USA would force Iran to open up immediately and start taking chances to tie the match, which would not be ideal for Queiroz’s men.
In other words, one goal will throw this contest off the rails. That’s why betting against the common narrative — which is that Iran will park the bus and play for a 0-0 draw, while the USMNT will try desperately for a 1-0 win — will provide value. The entire world is expecting a low-event, rock fight and that will likely show up in the betting market, which will cause bookmakers to put a premium on the Under and markets correlated to it. So instead of playing into that narrative, bettors can find value zagging against it. And the best way to do that is to play the USMNT to win parlayed with the Over 2.5 goals at +250 odds (BetMGM). Another good bet is to take USA to win/both teams to score (+360, Caesars)