Under control MNF props
With just six weeks left in the NFL season, the NFC South title is there for the taking for the Buccaneers and Saints, who have combined to win each of the last five division titles. There’s only one problem: neither team can score.
These two offenses rank among the worst in the league by most metrics, and both face a difficult matchup against the other team’s defense in Week 13. Naturally, that lends itself to plenty of potential value for under bettors in the player props market. Here are three bets we’re making at BetMGM ahead of Monday’s contest:
Tom Brady Under 273.5 passing yards (-115)
It’s been a rough season for Brady, who hasn’t looked anything like the quarterback who finished second in MVP voting a year ago. And it won’t get any easier against a team that’s famously given him trouble in the past.
Brady’s worst game of the year came in Week 2 against the Saints, who held him to easily his worst marks all year in passing yards (190) and completion percentage (52.9 percent). That was one of six times this year that Brady has been held below 275 yards — including each of the last two weeks — and the ninth time in 11 career games against New Orleans.
Saints head coach Dennis Allen has been at the helm of this Saints defense for each of the last seven meetings, holding Brady below this total in five of those contests. Until the GOAT proves he can crack the code against his division rival, I’m firing away on the Under.
Mike Evans Under 60.5 receiving yards (-115)
If we’re betting low on Brady’s passing production, it only makes sense that we’d fade his top target, too. But that isn’t the only reason we love the Under here on Evans’ total.
The Buccaneers’ top receiver this season has posted just 41.7 yards per game over his last three contests, finishing with 31 yards last week for his lowest output since last year’s 14-yard effort against — you guessed it — the Saints. He left that game with an injury, but he’s still averaging a mere 32.6 yards in his last eight meetings with New Orleans dating back to 2019.
He’s posted as many games below 20 yards (3) as he has over 60 yards (3) in that stretch thanks largely to the stellar play of top corner Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), who figures to be back in action after missing this team’s last seven games. Whether he plays or not, Evans has his work cut out for him just to reach a total he’s fallen well short of in recent weeks.
Jarvis Landry Under 43.5 receiving yards (-110)
When I first saw this prop, I couldn’t believe it. Have oddsmakers seen Landry play football this season? Or, like, at any point over the last three seasons?
This may have been a fair number years ago for the five-time Pro Bowler, but the Saints wideout finished with 25 yards when these teams met in Week 2 and hasn’t topped 40 yards since the season opener. He’s averaging just 24 yards in six games since, never seeing more than six targets and playing just over half his team’s snaps over the last two weeks.
Even with target-hog Juwan Johnson (ankle) ruled out for Monday’s contest, I just don’t see the opportunity there for Landry, especially with Chris Olave emerging as a clear No. 1 option. Landry has finished with 44 yards just six times in 17 games (35.3 percent) over the past two seasons and just once this year, and I don’t expect a sudden revival against a solid Buccaneers defense.
C Jackson Cowart analyzes the NFL for Action Network.