Invest in CeeDee at TNF market rate
This midweek tilt between the Titans and Cowboys is mired in uncertainty on Tennessee’s side, as star running back Derrick Henry (hip) remains uncertain to suit up as of this writing. That’s resulted in a limited slate of player props available for the Titans, while the questionable tag on Dallas rusher Tony Pollard (thigh) has reduced the offerings on that side, too.
Fear not, as there’s still a few value bets worth making among the available prop bets. Here’s what we’re targeting at BetMGM ahead of Thursday night:
CeeDee Lamb Over 69.5 receiving yards (-115)
It feels as if not enough people are talking about this ridiculous season from Lamb, who ranks seventh among all receivers in receptions (91) and eighth in receiving yards (1,207). He’s been even more spectacular over the last few weeks and is priced too low to ignore here.
Since Week 10, the Cowboys star ranks second in the league in receiving yards per game (93) with more games of at least 100 receiving yards (four) than below 70 yards (two). He has looked virtually unstoppable over the last two weeks, tallying at least
120 yards on seven-plus catches in each one as Dak Prescott’s top option.
Now he faces a Titans pass defense that ranks 31st in yards allowed per game (279.6) and lacks a true shutdown corner to contain Lamb. I’m surprised oddsmakers are hanging such a low number on a superstar wideout who shows no signs of stopping.
Dak Prescott over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-115)
I love betting on the interceptions thrown prop week in and week out, as oddsmakers have a tough time fairly pricing the likelihood of one volatile event. And I particularly love the value here on Prescott, who has struggled mightily to keep the ball out of opponents’ hands.
How could you not like the value on the Over after what we’ve seen from him this season? The Cowboys passer ranks fifth in interceptions thrown (12) and has tossed at least one in eight of his 10 starts, including each of his last five. That’s no fluke — Prescott simply isn’t taking care of the ball well, especially in the face of increased pressure like what he saw last week against the Eagles (six sacks).
The Titans’ defense is middle-of-theroad in terms of interceptions forced, but they rank 10th in hurry rate (7.9 percent) and have generated three interceptions over their last three games. At basically coin-flip odds, I love their chances of keeping Prescott’s interceptions streak alive.
Micah Parsons Under 4.5 combined tackles (+120)
I’m not sure what oddsmakers have in mind with this number, which Parsons has hit just six times in 15 starts (40 percent) across this season. And we can get the other side at plusmoney? Sign me up!
This isn’t a reflection on Parsons’ talent; far from it. The Cowboys’ do-it-all linebacker still ranks fifth in sacks (13), fourth in forced fumbles (three) and ninth in tackles for loss (14), proving why he’s one of the best defenders in the league. As for run-of-themill tackles, though? That’s not his forte, ranking a mere 135th in combined tackles (62) with just 4.1 per game.
He’s recorded fewer than five tackles in five of his last six games, and now he’s dealing with a hand injury that likely won’t sideline him but could affect his abilities on Thursday — especially as a tackler. At plus-money odds, this feels like a steal. C Jackson Cowart analyzes the NFL for Action Network.