Getting in on Gonzaga as short home favorite

It hasn’t been a typical year for Gonzaga. Instead of beating all of its conference foes by 20-plus points, the Bulldogs have been tested and have lost twice in the West Coast Conference. One of those losses came in overtime against Saint Mary’s. On Saturday, the Bulldogs can even the score at home.

While this team isn’t vintage Gonzaga, it’s still pretty good. The Bulldogs rank in the top 15 on KenPom and own victories over Michigan State, Kentucky, Xavier and Alabama.

The other thing to note is it’s rare to get Gonzaga laying just a couple of points at home. And by rare, I mean it almost never happens. So while the Bulldogs may be a step below where they’ve been the last couple of seasons, this is a good time to back them.

In the first meeting, Gonzaga controlled much of the game before a furious comeback by Saint Mary’s forced overtime. The Bulldogs led the entire first half and were up 45-37 with 10 minutes to go. Saint Mary’s then outscored Gonzaga 41-25 in the final 10 minutes and overtime to win 78-70.

One thing that sticks out to me about the first game is that Saint Mary’s went 16-for-21 from the free-throw line. That’s a lot of foul shots for a team that ranks 252nd in free-throw attempts per game. Gonzaga shot 16-for-23, so points from the line were dead even. Look for the Bulldogs to have an edge in that category at home on Saturday.

You can certainly argue Saint Mary’s is the better team overall and will go further in the NCAA Tournament this year. I think, however, that this is a great spot to buy low on Gonzaga as a short favorite at home.

THE PLAY: Gonzaga, -5.